Leading commentators and diplomats have been pondering for quite some time why the Iranian leader is not prepared to act against the revolution in a major way.The 'China model' could be applied, a brutal, fast, and extremely violent strike against the opposition. According to conventional wisdom, tyrants will use all means to eliminate their opponents. So why haven't the mullahs adopted Chinese methods?More at the link...
Meanwhile, at least one commentator at Small Wars Council offers these thoughts by way of perspective:
Although the Iranian Army largely paved the way for Khomeini and the 'Revolution' when they 'stood aside' and 'recommended' that the Shah leave for 'health reasons' the Iranian Army has always been rather lukewarm towards the Ayatollahs; Hence the establishment of the IRGC in the first instance. The fact that the Iranian Army is now tacitly supporting what the Western media rather fllipantly call a 'revolutionary' movement elides the fact that they were also largely supportive (if not en bloc) during the tenure of Khatami and the 17th Khordad reform movement of which, and this should be remembered, the current events is an offshoot. Many of Khatami's alter kampfer (and even Rafsanjani's family) are associated with the current events. The Army, however, would never challenge the rule of the Faqih but would, as before, more than likely simply stand aside especially given the existence of the highly motivated IRGC and their adjunct, the Basij militia (a factor they didn't have to take into consideration before).
And in addition to the military looking around for a better Iran, there's an interesting article over at Foreign Policy about the split in the conservative ruling faction in Iran.
The circle around Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is hardening and shrinking -- and more and more, his former allies are turning against him. The regime seems determined to pursue a policy of dictatorship at home and isolation abroad, whatever the cost. Iran's snub of Western attempts to negotiate a deal over its nuclear program -- and the added insult of its recently announced plans to expand its uranium enrichment program tenfold -- are clear signs that cooler conservative heads in Tehran and Qom have lost ground to Ahmadinejad's hard-liners. Many religious Iranians and some conservative clerics, for example, have begun to increasingly feel that the theocratic system has become un-Islamic.
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One such figure is Mohsen Rezai, the former commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps who ran as a candidate in June against Ahmadinejad. Rezai has been outspoken in the past about the need for Iran to reach a diplomatic solution with the international community on its nuclear program. But he, like many other conservatives including Parliamentary Speaker Ali Larijani, are at odds with Ahmadinejad and his hard-line faction. In a recent interview with the conservative Panjereh weekly, Rezai spoke candidly about the rifts within the conservative establishment and how conservatives tried desperately before the presidential race to reach a consensus on a conservative candidate who would have a good chance of defeating Ahmadinejad. He said they feared another four years of Ahmadinejad would lead Iran to ruins.
What's really going on? Who knows. But one things for sure, within the next 12-18 months, you can bet the students are going stage their own uprising, and it'll start out looking like Tiananmen Square. Will it end up looking like the
1989 communist-led massacre of students that nearly tore the country apart? Wait and see.
By: Brant
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