Wargaming Complex Conflicts

There are a lot of projects out there for training with complex conflicts. Some are little more than add-ons to existing wargames, but a few have been purpose-built for it.

DARPA's Deep Green goes full-egghead on you.

The Deep Green concept is an innovative approach to using simulation to support ongoing military operations while they are being conducted. The basic approach is to maintain a state-space graph of possible future states. Software agents use information on the trajectory of the ongoing operation, vice a priori staff estimates as to how the battle might unfold, as well as simulation technologies, to assess the likelihood of reaching some set of possible future states. The likelihood, utility, and flexibility of possible future nodes in the state space graph are computed and evaluated to focus the planning efforts. This notion is called anticipatory planning and involves the generation of options (either manual or semi-automated) ahead of 'real time,' before the options are needed. In addition, the Deep Green concept provides mechanisms for adaptive execution, which can be described as 'late binding,' or choosing a branch in the state space graph at the last moment to maintain flexibility. By using information acquired from the ongoing operation, rather than assumptions made during the planning phase, commanders and staffs can make more informed choices and focus on building options for futures that are becoming more likely.

The University of Southern California has developed UrbanSim at their Institute for Creative Technologies, which is a little more gamer-friendly.

The UrbanSim practice environment allows trainees to take on the role of an Army battalion commander, and to plan and execute operations in the context of a difficult fictional training scenario. After developing their commander's intent, identifying their lines of effort and information requirements, and selecting their measures of effectiveness, trainees direct the actions of a battalion as they attempt to maintain stability, fight insurgency, reconstruct the civil infrastructure, and prepare for transition.
UrbanSim targets trainees' abilities to maintain situation awareness, anticipate second and third order effects of actions, and adapt their strategies in the face of difficult situations. UrbanSim is driven by an underlying socio-cultural behavior model, coupled with a novel story engine that interjects events and situations based on the real-world experience of former commanders. UrbanSim includes an intelligent tutoring system to provide guidance to trainees during execution, as well as after action review capabilities.

If you're interested in tackling some of it yourself, you can find some interesting research resources here.

And there's a great article about how to wargame counterinsurgency at The Escapist.

By: Brant