How Close Is China To Being a Legitimate Air Threat?

DT's got a great article, and I love the headline: Debating the Performance Characteristics of a Non-Existent Chinese 5th Gen Fighter

We do know this: the number of 5th gen fighters in the Chinese inventory is zero.
U.S. aircraft manufacturers have wrestled with the complicated components of stealth, such as radar absorbent coatings and the complexities of the aircraft’s shape, for many decades. The F-22 program began in the 1980s; it was given Milestone I approval in 1986.
Yet, some assume China is on the cusp of mastering the complexities of stealth on an industrial scale. A recent Reuters story breathlessly claimed that China is developing a 5th generation fighter that “may rival within eight years Lockheed Martin Corp’s F-22 Raptor, the premier U.S. fighter.”
It’s based on testimony from Wayne Ulman of the Air Force National Air and Space Intelligence Center to the congressional U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission. “It’s yet to be seen exactly how (the next generation) will compare one on one with say an F-22,” Ulman told the commission. “But it’ll certainly be in that ballpark.”
Ulman’s prepared testimony was a bit more cautious: “a next-generation fighter (referred to as the XXJ) should be operational around 2018.”
The Reuters article goes on to say that this “intelligence” contradicts statements made by SecDef Robert Gates last year in front of the Economic Club Of Chicago that China is “projected to have no fifth generation aircraft by 2020,” and only “a handful” of them by 2025.

By: Brant