How Might the Norks React to Sanctions

Now that we slapped another round of sanctions on the Norks, Reuters looks as what the reactions might be...

HOW WILL NORTH KOREA REACT?

Very angrily. North Korea slammed the brakes on disarmament talks in 2005 after the U.S. Treasury Department moved to freeze North Korean accounts at Macau's Banco Delta Asia, accusing it of being used for money laundering. The boycott of the six-party talks went on for more than a year, culminating in frantic U.S. actions to release the funds to resolve the issue so that the regional powers could move on with ending the North's nuclear programme.

Analysts said the roughly $24 million frozen at the Macau bank personally belonged to leader Kim Jong-il, whose son was a resident of Macau, which was the reason the North was extremely keen on getting it back before returning to talks.

Further provocations are possible, especially as the North tries to build political support for succession of power to Kim Jong-il's son. U.S. President Barack Obama's pick to be the top intelligence official, James Clapper, said a dangerous new phase may be starting where the North will try to use aggression to advance its political goals.

WHAT IS SOUTH KOREA GOING TO DO?

The government of President Lee Myung-bak may be more open to dialogue with the North than the United States. Lee is passing the half-way point of his single term without much to show in accomplishment.

Some analysts say Lee will take the ship incident not as a chance to further toughen his policy but instead to moderate it and find a way to begin dialogue with Pyongyang.

ARE THE SIX-PARTY TALKS A POSSIBILITY

There was no reference at all to the six-party talks in the joint statement issued by the foreign and defence ministers of South Korea and the United States when they met on Wednesday. The talks are unlikely to be an option until some form of gesture from the North about the sinking of the South Korean navy ship.

By: Brant