Could We Have Seen the Cheonan Incident Coming?

In discussing repeated incursions by the Norks into South Korean waters, Galrahn asked back in June of 2009 if the Norks actually wanted a fight. And noted what wasn't happening:

My problem watching all of these North Korean activities unfold is that China is sitting idle doing nothing. Obama's problem with North Korea isn't only the little man himself, it is the way China passively allows the behavior by taking no steps to prevent the behavior, after all, China has all the cards in terms of taking action.

China can reign this in anytime they want, and have chosen not to so far. To me, that is a signal that cannot be ignored, because it specifically identifies China's intent in the region as not being a constructive partner with neighbors, which means the intent is to support the behavior.

Since then, we've had the sinking of the Cheonan and Nork propaganda posters bragging about the sinking.
We've had China's on-again, then off-again 'support' for the Norks.
We've got a lot of activity leading people to wonder if the second Korean War (or just the denouement of the first one) is coming to a head.


But most of all, we've got Galrahn looking downright prescient back in mid-09.

By: Brant