Israel Prepping Another Lebanon War?

The Haaretz Daily Newspaper is quoting an Israeli division commander that Israel is preparing for the next Lebanon war. Now, they'd be fools not to prepare, but this sure sounds more imminent.

Six years after the outbreak of the Second Lebanon War, the IDF is saying openly that Israel is preparing for another Lebanon war.

The commander of the IDF's 91st Division, Brigardier-General Hertzi Halevy told journalists on Thursday, "We understand that there is more than one factor, whether this is Lebanese, or whether it will come from somewhere else, that can ignite the border here."

The 91st Division, part of the Northern Command, and responsible for the front with Lebanon, sees developments in Syria as one of the factors that could upset the calm that has prevailed in the region since the war. The collapse of the Syrian regime may also bring with it an increase in Jihadi or Hezbollah operatives, who may try to carry out targeted attacks in the area.

Already, Northern Command intelligence says certain areas of the border between Lebanon and Syria are "lawless zones," which enable the transfer of more advanced weapons into the region. The IDF has stated that there are some 60 thousand missiles in Lebanon, ten times more than there were in the country during the first Lebanon war. Hezbollah has the capability to launch a large quantity of rockets in a short period time, and this could cause significant damage on the Home Front.

In IDF simulations of what a third Lebanon war would look like, ground maneuvers in villages that are considered bastions of Shiite Hezbollah become particularly important. "The next war will be different, and therefore we should stop it as quickly as possible, in order to make things easier for the home front. This means carrying out a very strong attack against Lebanon, and the damage will be enormous," says a senior officer in the Northern Command.

Want to wargame the last one? There's a project from one of Dr Sabin's students on the 2006 war in Lebanon that we previously featured in Random Friday Wargaming. There's also a 2012 "hypothetical" scenario in Millennium Wars Advanced: States of Conflict.

By: Brant