So what's the pool on when we're going to regret supporting (or even cheering for) these people?
All that "Allahu Ackbar" doesn't bode well when they consolidate their newly-captured hardware, figure out how to operate and maintain it, (with Russian and Chinese help), and decide that they (for example) want to "liberate" the Saudi oil fields or "liberate" the Palestinian territories.
One year? Five years? 10 years for sure. And. as a side bet, I think it will go nuclear this time. The nascent new caliphate (dominated by "the Twitter revolutionaries" of the long Arab spring, who many of us have admired as heroic freedom fighters) will take a run at Israel (perhaps via Palestine). The Israelis will see this as an existential threat and exercise the so-called "Samson option."
Two tanks. That's something. Well not much. Consider what the army has sent towards them.
With regular troops / armour supported by planes, helicopters and artillery (and the follow-up of the simply murderous militia) hitting them the FSA just can't hold onto key population centres.
The regime forces may be slowly degrading due to wear and tear and defections but they have the upper hand. I don't see this changing in the short term.
1. An internal coup to save various people and groupings within the regime.
2. An upgunning of the rebel forces with better anti-tank weapons and - more importantly - the ability to take down planes / helicopters. The Saudis and Qataris don't seem to be getting that sort of thing through and the Libyan fighters who have volunteered to spread liberation have not, it seems, accessed the MANPADS etc. that Gaddafis forces seem to have had.
There have been suggestions from one high level defector (al-Zobi) that the regime forces are running low on munitions, fuel and food for the troops.
I can't see any corroborating evidence for this. I asked British Channel 4's Alex Thomson (via Twitter) who was in Damascus at the time about this (and is reporting from Govt. held areas) and he replied:
- petrol station queues of a week ago in Damascus have now gone AND
- no evidence of food or fuel shortages whatsoever in Damascus . And like Homs, zero sign of popular uprising against regime.
One interesting factor that Rex had pointed out elsewhere is to watch the vehicles being used. If they're T55's then you're looking at conscript units. Once the T72s start showing up, that's Republican Guards, and the Alawite units that are much closer to the core of the regime, and might indicate an inability (or unwillingness) to send in conscript units that might well defect to the rebels.
So what's the pool on when we're going to regret supporting (or even cheering for) these people?
ReplyDeleteAll that "Allahu Ackbar" doesn't bode well when they consolidate their newly-captured hardware, figure out how to operate and maintain it, (with Russian and Chinese help), and decide that they (for example) want to "liberate" the Saudi oil fields or "liberate" the Palestinian territories.
One year? Five years? 10 years for sure. And. as a side bet, I think it will go nuclear this time. The nascent new caliphate (dominated by "the Twitter revolutionaries" of the long Arab spring, who many of us have admired as heroic freedom fighters) will take a run at Israel (perhaps via Palestine). The Israelis will see this as an existential threat and exercise the so-called "Samson option."
Your resident paranoid...
-- Guardian
Two tanks. That's something. Well not much. Consider what the army has sent towards them.
ReplyDeleteWith regular troops / armour supported by planes, helicopters and artillery (and the follow-up of the simply murderous militia) hitting them the FSA just can't hold onto key population centres.
The regime forces may be slowly degrading due to wear and tear and defections but they have the upper hand. I don't see this changing in the short term.
What can change the game?
ReplyDelete1. An internal coup to save various people and groupings within the regime.
2. An upgunning of the rebel forces with better anti-tank weapons and - more importantly - the ability to take down planes / helicopters. The Saudis and Qataris don't seem to be getting that sort of thing through and the Libyan fighters who have volunteered to spread liberation have not, it seems, accessed the MANPADS etc. that Gaddafis forces seem to have had.
There have been suggestions from one high level defector (al-Zobi) that the regime forces are running low on munitions, fuel and food for the troops.
ReplyDeleteI can't see any corroborating evidence for this. I asked British Channel 4's Alex Thomson (via Twitter) who was in Damascus at the time about this (and is reporting from Govt. held areas) and he replied:
- petrol station queues of a week ago in Damascus have now gone AND
- no evidence of food or fuel shortages whatsoever in Damascus . And like Homs, zero sign of popular uprising against regime.
One interesting factor that Rex had pointed out elsewhere is to watch the vehicles being used. If they're T55's then you're looking at conscript units. Once the T72s start showing up, that's Republican Guards, and the Alawite units that are much closer to the core of the regime, and might indicate an inability (or unwillingness) to send in conscript units that might well defect to the rebels.
ReplyDelete