When Defense Secretary Robert Gates said last week al Qaeda and its allies might try to provoke a conflict between India and Pakistan, he articulated what many see as the biggest risk to U.S. plans for the region.
A major attack on India by Islamist militants could lead to retaliation by a country still bruised by last year's assault on Mumbai, further destabilizing nuclear-armed Pakistan.
"The Pakistanis are really frustrated. They keep being told to 'do more'," said Kamran Bokhari at U.S. think-tank Stratfor.
He said Pakistan was worried about the possibility of another militant attack on India but unsure how to prevent it.
Pakistan is already fighting militants who attacked its military headquarters in October and last week killed at least 40 people in a nearby mosque used by the army.
"When they can't guarantee there will be no attacks in their own country, they can't guarantee India won't be attacked."
India, angry at Pakistan's refusal to act against the Lashkar-e-Taiba militant group blamed for killing 166 people in the Mumbai attacks, has rejected calls for talks and suggested it could even retaliate were there to be another major attack on Indian soil.
As a result, tension is at its worst since 2002 when one million men were mobilized on the border after a December 2001 attack on the Indian parliament by Pakistan-based militants.
"It's not as bad as 2002," said Praveen Swami, a defense expert at the newspaper The Hindu. "But it is the worst it has been since then."
It is a situation which al Qaeda may try to exploit.
Now, how much of this is legit, and how much is trying to place blame for Indo-Paki relations on an external source to keep tempers down is anyone's guess, but it seems like AQ might be interested in a shooting war on the subcontinent, while everyone else would love to blame AQ so they can avoid a shooting war...
By: Brant
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