BUB: Iranian Bluster

Iran has a big anniversary celebration coming up, commemorating the "Islamic Revolution". Somehow, the institutional rulers believe that 31 years later, they're still "revolutionary" for wanting to return their nation to 1320.

Iran is talking smack about smacking the Western powers.

The Iranian government on Monday stepped up military threats in advance of an anniversary celebration as major powers continued talks on a new round of sanctions.

Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said in Tehran that his country would stun the Western world on Thursday, the 31st anniversary of Iran's Islamic revolution. Iran's defense minister announced on Monday that its forces had conducted successful tests on new armed unmanned aircraft and advanced air defenses.

"The Iranian nation, with its unity and God's grace, will punch the arrogance [Western powers] on the 22nd of Bahman [Feb. 11] in a way that will leave them stunned," Ayatollah Khamenei was quoted as saying by Agence France-Presse.

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Expect plenty of protests on "Revolution day" (or whatever they're calling it) on the heels of last year's heavy crackdown.

Iranians are struggling over the legacy and even the legitimacy of an Islamic revolution that triumphed 31 years ago this week. No compromise is in sight.

Opposition leaders Mirhossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karoubi have called for more anti-government rallies on Thursday, the climax of official anniversary celebrations. But they acknowledge that the youthful protest movement has dynamics beyond their control.

Iran also faces growing Western calls for targeted sanctions after President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad on Sunday ordered production of higher-grade uranium, stirring fears that Tehran aims to make nuclear bombs, not just fuel for civilian use as it says.

Iran's oil-based economy is already under financial strains that have forced Ahmadinejad to seek cuts in fuel, food and other subsidies which, if enacted, could stoke popular discontent.

The Islamic Republic has survived many challenges, not least a 1980-88 war started by Iraq's Saddam Hussein, whose forces were propped up by Gulf Arab oil money and Western weaponry.

But the national unity forged in that trauma has long given way to rifts within clerical and political elites that widened after Ahmadinejad was re-elected in a June vote. His foes cried foul. Street protests have flared periodically ever since.

"Iran is ready for a real change," said Beirut-based Iraqi sociologist Faleh Abdul-Jabbar. "The broad social alliance that brought Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini to power is fractured now."

Poor citydwellers and migrant peasants formed the bulk of the urban masses which helped Khomeini topple the U.S.-backed shah in 1979, he argued. The middle classes have since grown, helped by economic reform, cultural relaxation and relative prosperity under Ahmadinejad's more moderate predecessors.

"The clerical class that was united behind Khomeini is split. The political elite is also divided," Abdul-Jabbar said.

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It's not just nuke fuel they're beefing up, but the military forces as well.

Iranian officials trumpeted new nuclear and military ambitions Monday in the face of domestic political discord and stepped-up international talk of tightening economic sanctions against the Islamic Republic.

Ali Akbar Salehi, head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, announced that Tehran had informed the United Nations' nuclear watchdog that it intended to launch construction of 10 new nuclear-fuel plants in the Persian calendar year starting March 2010 and begin producing 20%-enriched uranium to provide fuel for a Tehran medical reactor.

Up until now, Iran has only produced reactor-grade 3.5%-enriched uranium and has managed to build only one functioning nuclear-fuel plant.

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Secretary Gates wants sanction now, not later.

U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates wants to see the United Nations slap sanctions on Iran in "weeks, not months."

Pentagon spokesman Geoff Morrell told reporters Tuesday that Gates "clearly thinks time is of the essence."

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By: Brant