23 March 2010

Are China and India Going To Come To Blows?

Depends on the near future, of course, but both are gearing up, and both have large populations and not a lot to do with them, as the skew more and more male.

By sheer demographics, it's the world's most important relationship. China and India comprise 40% of humanity and boast economies that are expected to loom large over the 21st century. They also represent two of the world's fastest-growing militaries, armed with nuclear weapons, and are expanding their spheres of influence across oceans. Jonathan Holslag, a Brussels-based scholar of Chinese foreign policy and author of the recent book China and India: Prospects for Peace, is among a growing number of observers who have dismissed the idea of "Chindia" — a term once often invoked, expressing optimism over the joint geopolitical rise of the two Asian giants.

In the Q&A with the subject of the article...
Hypothetically, how could some sort of military clash come about?
It wouldn't first be open war. China and India are building up their interests in conflict-prone and unstable states on their borders like Nepal and Burma — important sources of natural resources. If something goes wrong in these countries — if the politics implode — you could see the emergence of proxy wars in Asia. Distrust between India and China will grow and so too security concerns in a number of arenas. It's an important scenario that strategic planners in both Beijing and Delhi are looking at.

By: Brant

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

My take on this is that a population skewed male (and in some areas of China and India the balance is WAY out of whack, especially in more affluent areas) is a recipe for more internal trouble, domestic violence and crime - and not necessarily one that would lead to an aggressive and expansionist foreign policy.

The Chinese government can whip up hatred and paranoia against the US, India, Japan, or whomever they want in order to divert attention from their problems - but the real enemy of China is living there now.