A Military Coup in Iraq?

Is there the possibility of a military coup brewing in Iraq?

Unfortunately, Iraq's problems are far more complicated than these threats to the electoral process. Even if this election proves to be inclusive, fair and transparent, there are other threats to a peaceful transition of power to the upcoming democratically elected government. The Iraqi armed forces continue to be infiltrated by militias and controlled by the current ruling parties. After the disbanding of the Iraqi Army in 2003 by Paul Bremer, the US ruler of Iraq at the time, Bremer issued Order 91 to integrate nine militias totaling about 100,000 men or more into the Iraqi armed forces. It sounded like a good idea at first.

However, the ruling parties kept control over their armed men even after they became members of Iraq's new Army, national police and national guards. For example, the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI), formerly an Iranian government agency created during the Iraq-Iran war, incorporated its Badr brigades into the armed forces, but kept its original hierarchy and chain of command. So did the two ruling Kurdish Parties, the PUK and KDP. In many cases, the ruling parties control entire brigades in the Iraqi Army or national police to this day. This situation has caused many Iraqi leaders, including Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, to worry about the loyalty of the transformed militiamen.

There is a high probability that Iraq will face a political meltdown after these elections. There is also the possibility, if al-Iraqiya wins the elections, that ISCI and other ruling parties backed by the Iranian government might stage a military coup. Most Iraqis would agree that the upcoming months will most probably bear a lot of bad news.

By: Brant