Taking Stock Of Euro Defense Cut Possibilities

Would Europeans really neuter their military might this much? Some of these proposals are on the table. Yikes.

Two Brigades Abandoned

Budgetary urgency to cut spending varies from country to country. In the Netherlands, 12 possible scenarios have been proposed to cut back on the armed forces. Potential savings range from 0.4 billion to 2.1 billion euros, on a total annual budget of 8 billion.

In the cheapest scenario, the Dutch armed forces would focus exclusively on the navy and air force, cutting 23,500 jobs and disbanding two entire brigades. Foreign missions such the current deployment in Afghanistan would then become impossible.

The German federal military has until June to reconsider any major purchases such as airplanes and helicopters. "Military planners’ first reflex will be to try to reduce bureaucracy and postpone expensive acquisitions," said Hilmar Linnenkamp, a defense specialist with the Berlin-based think-tank SWP. "Little will change because the crisis isn’t grave enough to warrant it. Perhaps we will buy a few A400M transport planes, or 37 Eurofighters less. But that will be it."

In France, meanwhile, the battle over defense spending has yet to be fought. The current French defense budget, which has already been determined for the years 2009 to 2014, allows for significant investments in equipment that will partially be paid for by reducing personnel spending. The French armed forces will receive 100 billion euros to but new frigates and Rafale fighter-jets. Their number of troops will have to be down-sized by 47,600. All together, this means an effective increase in French defense spending.

French Soldiers Fight Finance Ministry

The French finance ministry has already suggested reconsidering this plan in the light of the French vow to reduce its budget deficit from 8.2 to 3 percent of GDP. The finance and defense ministry will probably butt heads over the matter later this month. Far-reaching cutbacks will be some time in the making however, thinks Jean-Pierre Maulny of the Paris-based IRIS research institute.

The British armed forces may be the first to take some major hits. A British think-tank has estimated the country’s next government will have to cut defense spending by 15 percent in the next six years. Defense minister Des Browne recently even suggested the U.K. should start sharing its equipment - and the financial burdens that come with it - with other countries.

"Until recently, the U.K. was able to maintain armed forces that were prepared for all tasks imaginable," said British expert O’Donnell. "Now the financial problem has become so pressing that people have to face up to the fact some tasks may have to be abandoned altogether. A decrease in the number of aircraft carriers is a real option now, as is reducing nuclear force. In the past, these things were never up for debate."

Politicians and defense specialists have argued for years that European cooperation is the only logical strategy for the future, but this has been progressing slowly for a number of reasons. Cooperation threatens national sovereignty and European military forces are equipped with materials from different manufacturers. Besides, the defense industry makes up an important part of the national economy in some European countries.

By: Brant