A sensible prediction of what's to come in Afghanistan

ADM Eric Olson has written a solid set of predictions of what we can expect in Afghanistan. One hopes people will listen.

First, given the challenge of deploying and sustaining our troops in an incredibly difficult and underdeveloped region, the troop buildup probably will take most of the year to complete. Initially, as new units fan out into areas where no coalition forces have operated before -- especially in the largely Pashtun provinces in the south and east -- the stark prediction of senior U.S. military commanders will no doubt be fulfilled: U.S. casualties will spike until soldiers and their leaders become accustomed to the new terrain and the enemy that has operated at will there.

But as our forces adapt, they will fight with increasing effectiveness, and more and more the insurgents probably will choose not to accept battle, deciding instead to move to new havens as they are able to identify them, or simply to go to ground -- that is, melt into the masses of their Pashtun countrymen. Contacts with the enemy are likely to decline, which means U.S. and coalition casualties will decrease.

It is also likely that the number of reported Afghan civilian casualties will decrease. U.S. commanders will make protecting the population from insurgent attacks a high priority, and they will go to extraordinary lengths to ensure that civilian casualties caused by coalition strikes are kept to a minimum. Terrorist attacks in U.S.-controlled areas will still occur, but they will decrease.

Besides, you ignore a man whose middle name is "Thor" at your own peril.

By: Brant