Trying to Keep Chemical, SAM Weapons Off the Market

The Syria implosion is being watched carefully for at least one lesson learned from Libya: keep track of the chemical weapons and SAMs.

The U.S. and its allies are closely monitoring Syria's stockpiles of chemical arms and portable anti-aircraft missiles, a State Department official says, amid concerns that the country's unconventional weapons could fall into the hands of terrorist or militant groups while the 11-month-old uprising continues.
"Syria is a country of significant proliferation concern, so we monitor its chemical weapons activities very closely," the State Department official said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence-related matters. "We believe Syria's chemical weapons stockpile remains under Syrian government control, and we will continue to work closely with like-minded countries to impede proliferation (of) Syria's chemical weapons program."
The official added that the U.S. is in discussion with its allies on ways to ensure that Syria's stockpile of portable anti-aircraft missiles, called Man-Portable Air Defense Systems, or MANPADS, aren't stolen or diverted. "We are consulting with allies and partners as we plan for a variety of contingencies," the official said.
Republicans in Congress, meanwhile, have been critical of U.S. efforts to secure Libya's chemical and unconventional arsenals, saying the Obama administration should have responded more quickly during that crisis and now faces the task of trying to account for thousands of missing portable anti-aircraft missiles.

By: Brant

Random Friday Wargaming: Weapons of Mass Destruction

Getting a little goofy this week... Flying Buffalo's Weapons of Mass Destruction is a stand-alone expansion for their infamous Nuclear War.





There's no CSW forum out there, but you can pick up your own copy over at Flying Buffalo's site.

Master links/images from Boardgamegeek.com; message boards linked to Consimworld. Other links to the actual game pages...


By: Brant

When Sanctions Aren't Enough

Would the US really assassinate an Iranian scientist?

Iran said on Saturday it had evidence Washington was behind the latest killing of one of its nuclear scientists, state television reported, at a time when tensions over the country's nuclear program have escalated to their highest level ever.
In the fifth attack of its kind in two years, a magnetic bomb was attached to the door of 32-year-old Mostafa Ahmadi-Roshan's car during the Wednesday morning rush-hour in the capital. His driver was also killed.
U.S. Secretary of State Hilary Clinton denied responsibility and Israeli President Shimon Peres said Israel had no role in the attack, to the best of his knowledge.
"We have reliable documents and evidence that this terrorist act was planned, guided and supported by the CIA," the Iranian foreign ministry said in a letter handed to the Swiss ambassador in Tehran, state TV reported. The Swiss embassy represents U.S. interests in a country where Washington has no diplomatic ties.
The spokesman for Iran's Joint Armed Forces Staff, Massoud Jazayeri, said: "Our enemies, especially America , Britain and the Zionist regime (Israel), have to be held responsible for their actions."

By: Brant

Sound Off! Big, Ugly, Nasty Weapons

You're on the offense, do you want...

... nukes! Turn the enemy to radioactive sludge!

... chemicals! Make him choke to death and MOPP4 your way through the bodies!

Stake your claim in all its gruesomnicity below!


By: Brant

Here's a Baaaaaad Idea

And the Oscar for Best Unintentional Destruction of the Human Race goes to the Dutch researcher who created a super-influenza virus that contains multiple mutations, and could wipe out billions (yes, with a 'b') if it ever escaped into the wild. Yay, science!

A Dutch researcher has created a virus with the potential to kill half of the planet’s population. Now, researchers and experts in bioterrorism debate whether it is a good idea to publish the virus creation ”recipe”. However, several voices argue that such research should have not happened in the first place.

The virus is a strain of avian influenza H5N1 genetically modified to be extremely contagious. It was created by researcher Ron Fouchier of the Erasmus Medical Center Rotterdam, Netherlands. The work was first presented at a conference dedicated to influenza, that took place in September in Malta.

Avian influenza emerged in Asia about 10 years ago. Since then there were fewer than 600 infection cases reported in humans. On the other hand, Fouchier’s genetically modified strain is extremely contagious and dangerous, killing about 50% of infected patients. The former strain did not represent a global threat, as transmission from human to human is rare. Or, at least, it was before Fouchier genetically modified it.

Fouchier and his team used a pair of ferrets for testing because they react in similar ways as humans, when exposed to the flu virus. Researchers transmitted the deadly virus from one ferret to another, in order to make the virus more adaptable to a new host. After 10 generations, the virus has mutated allowing it to spread through air. The result was that ferrets could get sick just being near another infected animal.

A genetic study showed that new virus strain presented five mutations, and all could be also observed in nature - but only separately, not all five combined. Fouchier’s strain is as contagious as seasonal human influenza, which kills tens of thousands of people, just that, much more lethal.

You have to love accidental biological warfare. And from the Dutch no less!

By: Brant

Missile Warheads Stolen from Romanian Train

And not just a few, either... 64(?!)

Authorities say they are investigating the theft of 64 missile warheads from a train transporting military equipment to Bulgaria.
Interior ministry spokesman Marius Militaru said Sunday the components are not dangerous on their own — only when integrated into missile systems. Prosecutors said Monday they are investigating the theft.
Railway workers on Saturday noticed the seals on a carriage door were broken, and it was not properly closed when the train reached Giurgiu, a Danube port that borders Bulgaria.
Tohan Zarnesti, the Romanian company that was shipping the warheads, produces artillery ammunition, ground to ground missiles and air to ground missiles and warheads for 122mm missiles.

By: Brant

Dear GEN Shinseki, We Were Wrong But We're Still Not Apologizing To You

Nice to know that Rummy is kinda-sorta-in-a-weaselly-way admitting that GEN Shinseki was right about the troop levels in Iraq.

The former defense secretary was reluctant to endorse Bush's assessment that the decision to draw down US troops shortly after the 2003 invasion of Iraq was "the most important failure in the execution of the war."
"I don't have enough confidence to say that that's right. I think that it's possible," Rumsfeld told ABC News anchor Diane Sawyer.
"We had (an) enormous number of troops ready to go in. They had -- we had off-ramps, if they weren't needed.
"It's hard to know. You know, the path you didn't take is always smoother," he added.

In case you don't remember what happened to GEN Shinseki let's let Joey Galloway remind you.

Shinseki answered that, based on his experience as the first commander in Bosnia, that it might take "several hundred thousand soldiers" to occupy Iraq with its 25 million people.
One military commander told me that on that day, when Shinseki said what he said, the plan called for 280,000 American troops to carry out the invasion and the follow-up occupation. The next day that force was reduced by 60,000 troops. Later the occupation force would be much smaller, well below 200,000. Well below 150,000 in fact.
The civilians would prove Ric Shinseki wrong no matter what it cost, and they would do everything in their power to punish him and everyone who liked him and supported him. Rumsfeld's deputy, Paul Wolfowitz, publicly rebuked Shinseki, saying his estimate was "wildly off the mark." They also made him a lame duck by leaking the name of his proposed successor more than a year before he was to retire.
When Army Secretary Tom White spoke up on behalf of Shinseki, he was fired.

By: Brant

UK In Action: Getting Wet at Sea

Royal Navy type 42 destroyer HMS Edinburgh is pictured during a pre-wetting exercise. This system is designed to increase the Ship's survivability from chemical or biological attack by washing-off any agents which laid on the Ship. The crew inside are kept safe by a positive-pressure atmospheric 'citadel', and by wearing personal respirators.

Image: UK MoD

By: Widow 6-7

GrogNews Daily Headlines

The updates from Korea:
The Norks are warning that the region is on the brink of war is the US and South Koreans go ahead with their planned exercises. The region is apparently not on "the brink of war" because, y'know, they fired artillery at unarmed civilians or anything or anything. And just to join the fun, China is issuing warnings, too.
The Chinese media is also claiming the South Koreans are "relaunching" psychological warfare against the Norks. Oh, and Fox News thinks they know how to "take down" North Korea without a war.


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In other less exciting news

The Russians have opened a plant to destroy chemical weapons.

After finding a 'bomb factory' in a house in southern California, law enforcement had pulled out of working on it, claiming that they're scared shitless of blowing themselves up it's too dangerous.

Saudi Arabia has arrested 149 people they claim are al-Qaeda suspects.

The Paks claim to have foiled a bomb plot in their capital.

And yes, there are still loud and proud opponents of repealing DADT in the US military.

The Karzai government is blaming the British for the Taliban "impostor". Can we blame them for the 'real' Taliban?

The US is warning its allies about the upcoming Wikileaks dump.

Mugabe's Prime Minister is taking him to court, for all the good it'll do.

By: Brant

GrogNews (Sorta-)Morning Headlines

Yep, we're running late again today... real life and all that :)


Mark Urban over at the BBC thinks that close cooperation between France and Britain is a good thing, and has actually been going on for a while now. Some people are already dubbing it the "Entente Frugale" as the nations combine their military efforts.

The mail bombers didn't know where their toner cartridge bombs would go off, but figured it would wreck havoc either way. The Greeks aren't waiting to find out where any mail bombs might go off, as they've suspended foreign airmail service following a few mail bombs there in the past several days.

Koreas are trading fire again.

NATO is looking for Russian cooperation in Afghanistan. As long as it's not the same kind of "cooperation" we gave them in the 1980s.

Americans helping al-Shabab? Wow.

So apparently GWB's memoirs include a reference that he had a "sickening feeling" that no WMDs were ever found. Excuse me, Mr President, they were found... don't you read WikiLeaks? Or shouldn't you have been reading Danger Room lately? Or heck, didn't you listen to LTG Maples back in 2006 when the then-head of the DIA said they found over 500 chemical munitions?

By: Brant

GrogNews Update: Latest WikiLeaks Headlines and Links

Iran has characterized the WikiLeaks disclosures as "diabolical". No word about how they characterize their involvement.

The US is defending their Iraq record amid a flurry of accusations and complaints. Odd that those who are treating the WikiLeaks trove as gospel to hammer the US about "human rights" issues are making no mention at all of the chemical weapons disclosures in the same archives.

While the headlines are coming fast and furious, it also appears that there's a power struggle inside of WikiLeaks going on.

And the NY Times has an interesting idea: an ask-a-reporter page where readers can request info on the WikiLeaks archives from the reporters digging through them.

By: Brant

Danger Room Catches Up... 4 years later

So Danger Room has an interesting dig thru the 'new' WikiLeaks archives for evidence of WMDs in Iraq and finds multiple instances of reports throughout the years.

Heck, we excerpted an article back in 2006 over at StrayVoltage where a general admitted they found them right before a classified briefing to Congress.

So yeah, anyone who says that we never found WMDs in Iraq is probably under the delusion that we "lost" in Vietnam, too.

By: Brant

BUB: Return of the Leak

Like a bad case of syphilis that won't stop dripping, WikiLeaks just keeps on "leaking"...

So WikiLeaks has dropped a fresh load of "secrets" about the war in Iraq. Keep in mind that the definition of "secret" can be kinda, well, flexible. I mean, they published the authorization doc for TF ODIN once, thinking it was some sort of state secret.

So anyway, Comrade Julian, who excels at putting the "Ass" in "Assange", is trying to defend the release of the classified docs as though the future of the human race depends on it. His claim is that they show "the truth" about the Iraq war, but as WIRED has recounted after the Afghanistan leaks, what shows up in terse SIGACTS reports - sometimes submitted hours after the actual event - isn't the full context of what happened on the ground.

MSNBC.com - not the overtly left-leaning TV channel, but the more balanced website - has an interesting article about how different news organizations look at the leaks with different viewpoints.

- For example, Al Jazeera's website has a huge headline about how the "US turned blind eye to torture" while burying at the bottom of the page an article entitled "A snapshot of Al-Qaeda in Iraq".

- The New York Times has chosen to focus some attention on details of Iran’s aid for Iraqi militias.

- WaPo took a broader view, but focused on deaths and torture.

- WIRED preferred to examine a lot of technical details of the operations, including a report that Iran was smuggling chemical weapons into Iraq for use by militias.

And while everyone wants Xewater's head on a plate, including the crusading activist Spencer Ackerman, WaPo's SpyTalk blog says that the WikiLeaks files likely pose little threat to Blackwater.

And yes, there was an official condemnation from the US military.

By: Brant

BUB: Morning Headlines

WikiLeaks is at it again, threatening a huge data dump on the Iraq war. Given that there were so many more people deployed in Iraq than Afghanistan, the number of documents will be significantly greater.

China's giving some hints of their political succession process with the elevation of VP Xi Jinping to a key military committee. This move comes as more countries are looking for help from China to contain Nork WMDs. Given that the Chinese have been pretty cavalier about UN sanctions against Iran over their nuclear development, one wonders if China is really the right partner to lean on the Norks.

Guess what? There's a whole flotilla of terrorist enablers preparing to run the blockade that Israel has around Gaza. Sigh.

Back to Afghanistan, where the Kings of War discuss why Sweden should stay in Afghanistan. Most importantly, they draw the comparisons between the political discussions in Sweden and those in NATO countries, as Europeans debate their continued presence in Afghanistan.

US AFRICOM hosted a maritime security conference attended by 19 African countries and 5 European ones.

By: Brant

CIA's New Counterproliferation Center Now Open for Business

DoD is closing JFCOM, and other commands, as the CIA stands up a new center to combat the proliferation of nukes and other WMDs.

The CIA is opening a counterproliferation center to combat the spread of dangerous weapons and technology, a move that comes as Iran is on the verge of fueling up a new nuclear power plant.

CIA Director Leon Panetta said Wednesday that the new unit would place CIA operators side by side with the agency's analysts to brainstorm plans to "confront the threat of weapons of mass destruction — nuclear, chemical and biological."

The center would formalize the collaboration between the agency's analysts and operators, a close working relationship that CIA spokesman George Little said already has yielded intelligence successes.

Little cited their work in last year's revelation of the "discovery of the Syrian covert nuclear reactor and Iran's undeclared uranium enrichment facility near Qom." That Iranian city is the ideological center of Iran's Shiite rulers.

Paul Brannan, a senior analyst at the Institute for Science and International Security, said another CIA success was the slowing down of Iran's nuclear centrifuge operations at Natanz. The agency, he said, sneaked "faulty parts into Iran's nuclear supply chain."

That operation, Brannan said, "is an example of where you'd need both analysts to tell you what type of parts would Iran need that you could inject, and the operations side to work with trading companies to try to get the parts in there."

By: Brant

Playing Politics with Homeland Defense Teams

Following the announcement of the original HRFs, the DoD has released the plans to fill out the remaining HRF force.

The Department of Defense (DoD), in collaboration with the states, has selected Massachusetts, New York, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Texas, Missouri, Utah, and California to host the remaining eight homeland response forces (HRFs), which will be established in fiscal 2012. On June 3, 2010, DoD announced Ohio and Washington as the hosts for the first two HRFs, which will be established in fiscal 2011.

The creation of the HRFs is a part of DoD’s larger reorganization of its domestic chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear and high yield explosive (CBRNE) consequence management enterprise, initiated during the 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review. This reorganization will ensure DoD has a robust ability to respond rapidly to domestic CBRNE incidents while recognizing the primary role that the governors play in controlling the response to incidents that occur in their states.

The homeland response forces (HRF) will be distributed across the nation, with one HRF hosted in each of the ten Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) regions. Each HRF will provide a regional response capability of approximately 570 personnel composed of CBRNE specialists, command and control and security forces. HRFs will self-deploy by ground within six to 12 hours of an event, bringing life-saving medical, search and extraction, decontamination, security, and command and control capabilities -- this represents a dramatic improvement in response time and life-saving capability to the previous construct.

Coincident with the creation of the eight HRFs in fiscal 2012, the department has selected Puerto Rico, Wisconsin, Louisiana, Kentucky, Nevada, Oregon, and Maine to replace existing CBRNE Enhanced Response Force Packages (CERFP) that will evolve into HRFs. These formations composed of existing National Guard units will be trained to respond to a weapons of mass destruction incident, including: locating and extracting victims from a contaminated environment, performing mass patient/casualty decontamination, and providing medical treatment as necessary to stabilize patients for evacuation.

Now, I'm sure - just absolutely sure - that there was a serious and dedicated analysis made of the trade-offs for where these HRFs were to be stationed.
The rundown of states hosting these new, heavily-funded HRFs:
MA, NY, PA, GA, TX, MO, UT, CA, OH, WA
Here's the rundown of who's up for re-election this year:
CA - Barbara Boxer fighting Carly Fiorina, needs to a security 'win' to counter Republican claims she's soft on defense
GA - Johnny Isakson, freshman senator (R) up for re-election
MA - Scott Brown, who took over Kennedy's seat; Dems trying to butter him up to support other bills
MO - Kit Bond (R), is retiring and Dems would like the seat in the state with both St Louis and KC
NY - Trying to shore up Chuck Schumer; legitimate need for HRF here given NYC
OH - Trying to save Gov Strickland, who's in an ugly, ugly fight with Kasich and losing, plus Voinovich is retiring
PA - Arlen Specter's fight for his life where he's vilified for changing sides
TX - Would you believe no election? But how do you leave 3d-largest state off of HRF list?
UT - Bennett is out after not being "conservative enough"; do Dems think they can take the seat?
WA - Patty Murray (D) seeking re-election

So at least 5 of these HRFs (CA, MO, OH, PA, WA) may be politically-motivated. NY might have political consequences, but was a no-brainer out of the gate.
But notice that FL is off the list, despite a huge unsecurable coastline, because there's no real electoral advantage there for the Democrats.
NC, with it's military bases, is likely to go Republican with Richard Burr; ditto SC and the port and Sen DeMint, so both were probably off the table to start with.
Could Michigan use some federal coin? probably, but they'd just unionize the HRFs, insist on a job bank to pay any laid-off or inactive members their full pay, and then whine to the government to take 60% ownership of the National Guard when they went bankrupt.
Maryland and Virginia - surrounding DC - could've put these guys to work, but again, there's no electoral advantage there for Democrats. Mikulski (MD) will probably win handily, and there's no Senate or Gubernatorial election in VA this year.

So maybe it's all mission-driven. But I doubt it.

By: Brant

Border Security? Surely You Jest!

Hey, we can't even stop people from walking across an open freakin' free-fire zone, and now you want us to stop radioactive material from sneaking in?

Five years after Department of Homeland Security officials vowed to block the importation of radioactive materials that could be used to make a bomb, they still have not closed security gaps at U.S. borders, according to government auditors and researchers.

The failure to develop a strategic plan has delayed the creation of a "global nuclear detection architecture" that would guide a variety of federal agencies that share responsibility for preventing terrorists from detonating a nuclear bomb in the United States, the Government Accountability Office, the investigative arm of Congress, has found.

Instead of formulating a plan, the Domestic Nuclear Detection Office, part of DHS, spent more than $200 million on an ill-fated project to develop and deploy thousands of new high-tech detectors for screening vehicles and cargo at ports, according to the GAO.

In February, following one setback after another, officials abandoned full-scale deployment of the machines.

"Five years into its existence, it is apparent that the Domestic Nuclear Detection Office needs retooling," said Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman (I-Conn.), chairman of the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, which will hold a hearing about the office on Wednesday.

Look, when Congress accuses you of wasting money, you know you're screwed up.

By: Brant

Greatest Threat to the US?

According to Michelle Flournoy (likely the first US female SecDef), it's rogue WMDs, so we better get ready to secure the Norks nukes when they finally fall apart.

The risk of weapons of mass destruction falling into the hands of terrorists is the gravest threat facing the United States, a Pentagon official has said.
Asked about the existential threats against Washington, Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Michele Flournoy said there were many, but warned that "the thing that keeps me awake at night is a nexus between terrorism and massive destruction."
She told a Washington symposium on US security that the United States needs to better prepare for "the possibility that a terrorist organization could either acquire a ready-made weapon or fabricate something improvised that would have a catastrophic effect for us."
The threat of WMDs falling into terrorist hands was the driving rationale behind high-profile nuclear security summit hosted by President Barack Obama in April which featured leaders from 47 countries including "nuclear club" members China, France, India and Russia.

By: Brant

Dangers Of A Second Korean War

In the unlikely event that the current heightened tensions on the Korean Peninsula continue to escalate until a major war results, most military analysts worry about the loss of life and property that would result from a North Korean artillery bombardment of Seoul or North Korea's use of its limited nuclear arsenal. However, there are lesser known dangers of a renewed Korean conflict that include cyber attacks and the use of biochemical weapons by North Korea, as well as extensive flooding of South Korea due to the deliberate release of water by North Korean and/or South Korean dams. Worst-case scenario planning is clearly warranted, just in case!

By: Shelldrake

First Homeland Response Forces Headed to OH, WA

The DoD has announced that Ohio and Washington National Guards will field the first HRFs.

The National Guard Bureau, on behalf of Department of Defense (DoD) and in collaboration with the states, has selected Ohio and Washington as the first two states to host a homeland response force (HRF), which will be comprised of National Guard soldiers and airmen and established no later than the end of fiscal 2011.

The creation of the HRFs is a part of DoD’s larger reorganization of its chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear and high yield explosive (CBRNE) consequence management enterprise, initiated during the 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review. This reorganization will ensure DoD has a robust ability to respond rapidly to domestic CBRNE incidents while recognizing the primary role that the governors play in controlling the response to incidents that occur in their states.

Department of Defense plans to establish a total of 10 homeland response force (HRF) units nation-wide, with one HRF in each of the ten federal emergency management agency (EMA) regions. HRFs will provide a regional response capability of approximately 570 personnel composed of CBRNE specialists, command and control and security forces. HRFs will self-deploy by ground within six to 12 hours of an event, bringing life-saving medical, search and extraction, decontamination, security, and command and control capabilities- this represents a dramatic improvement in response time and life-saving capability to the previous construct.

Coincident with the creation of the Ohio and Washington HRFs, the department will create two new (CBRNE) enhanced response force packages (CERFPs) in Indiana and Alabama to replace the Ohio and Washington CERFPs that will evolve into HRFs. CERFPs are composed of existing National Guard units that are trained to respond to a weapon of mass destruction incident. The CERFP capabilities include: locate and extract victims from a contaminated environment, perform mass patient/casualty decontamination, and provide medical treatment as necessary to stabilize patients for evacuation.

The National Guard Bureau is currently analyzing and staffing the selection for the remaining eight HRFs and potential backfill CERFP states. Further information will be released as it becomes available.

Fact sheets on homeland response force (HRF) and CBRNE enhanced response force packages (CERFPs) can be found at http://www.defense.gov/news/d20100603HRF.pdf and http://www.defense.gov/news/d20100603CERFPs.pdf .

One wonders why Ohio was chosen, given that they're never home and would be hard-pressed to man the unit.

By: Brant