01 September 2010

COA Analysis: Somalia (Reader Participation Required!)

Starting our new series on Course of Action Analysis, we examine possible courses of action in Somalia. There's a raging Islamic insurgency that's modeling themselves after the Taliban, an AU peacekeeping force that's marginally competent and under-supported, a lack of cajones on the part of the Americans to relive Blackhawk Down, and an international piracy problem. Just your average minor conflict...



So what sayeth the readers? Pick a course of action and tell us how you see things playing out...


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By: Brant
Posted by Brant at 14:30
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1 comment:

Anonymous said...

COA 3

If AFRICOM throws in a lot of funding for training and equipment into AU forces, then you end up with a very capable force that can easily lose the public opinion fight. It would be very easy for the Islamists to paint them as lackeys of the US forces and reinforce their ranks with non-religiously-motivated forces who are simply there to throw out the outsiders.

While the Islamists don't seem to hold any real loyalty from the population, there aren't any other options. At some point, the anti-Jihadists need to define themselves in positive forms rather than negative. They need to stand for something other than "not the Islamists" or "not the pirates".

It has to start small. It can't start in Mogaidishu, and it needs to be focused on making life better for their people. Maybe start in Baidoa, where the 82d had great success in 91-93 and had most of a functioning city in place. But you have to pick a location that's not under the control of the Islamists, define a new gov't in positive and active terms (rather than defensive, "anti-" terms), and declare a new capital where religious oppression isn't tolerated, and build from there.

Not a great COA, but there you go - it's a start!

02 September, 2010 17:13

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