Shooting War Coming in the East China Sea?

Are China and Japan going to come to blows over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands? The Economist reports...

CHINA and Japan are sliding towards war. In the waters and skies around disputed islands, China is escalating actions designed to challenge decades of Japanese control. It is accompanying its campaign with increasingly blood-curdling rhetoric. Japan, says the China Daily, is the “real danger and threat to the world”. A military clash, says Global Times, is now “more likely…We need to prepare for the worst.” China appears to be preparing for the first armed confrontation between the two countries in seven decades

China and Japan have well-known differences over history and territory—most pressingly over five islets, out in the East China Sea, which Japan controls and calls the Senkakus but which China lays claim to and calls the Diaoyus. Rational actors with deeply entwined economies are supposed to sort out their differences, or learn to put them safely to one side. At least, that was the assumption with China and Japan.

But this changed in September, after Japan’s then prime minister, Yoshihiko Noda, nationalised the three islands Japan did not already own. It was a clumsy attempt to avoid them falling into the hands of Shintaro Ishihara, a right-wing China-baiter who was governor of Tokyo until late last year.

Yet China insisted that the move was an anti-China conspiracy to strengthen Japan’s claim. It set out to blow a hole in Japanese pretensions to sole control of the waters and skies around the islands. Incursions by surveillance vessels came first. Then, in December, a patrol plane buzzed the islands; Japan scrambled fighter planes. This month Japanese and Chinese jets sought to tail each other near the islands’ air space. Japan, newspapers report, is considering ordering warning shots to be fired next time. A Chinese general says that would count as the start of “actual combat”. So long as China vies for control, conflict will be a hair-trigger away.

The thing is, given the history behind their relationship - especially WWII - it won't be hard for China to drum up world sympathy against the Japanese, even if China is blatantly in the wrong. It will be interesting to see how this will play out in the UN, and on world trade markets, as both sides are very heavily tied in around the world. How many Japanese-owned shipping companies are hauling Chinese consumer goods to ports around the world?

By: Brant

Chinese Carrier Goes into Service

And anyone who thinks the timing of the launch of the carrier has nothing to do with the current maritime disputes with Japan isn't paying attention...

China sent its first aircraft carrier into formal service on Tuesday amid a tense maritime dispute with Japan in a show of force that could worry its neighbors.
China's Ministry of Defense said the newly named Liaoning aircraft carrier would "raise the overall operational strength of the Chinese navy" and help Beijing to "effectively protect national sovereignty, security and development interests".
In fact, the aircraft carrier, refitted from a ship bought from Ukraine, will have a limited role, mostly for training and testing ahead of the possible launch of China's first domestically built carriers after 2015, analysts say.
China cast the formal handing over of the carrier to its navy -- attended by President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao -- as a triumphant show of national strength at a time of tensions with Japan over islands claimed by both sides.
"The smooth commissioning of the first aircraft carrier has important and profound meaning for modernizing our navy and for enhancing national defensive power and the country's overall strength," Xinhua news agency cited Wen as saying at the commissioning ceremony in the northern port of Dalian.

By: Brant

Reviving Overseas Russian Bases?

Look, it's Pravda, so don't read too much into the 'facts', but even going public with plans to re-invigorate overseas bases has got to raise some eyebrows, huh?

The Russian government intends to restore the military-technical support of their ships at the former military base in Cam Ranh (Vietnam), Lourdes (Cuba) and the Seychelles. So far, this is not about plans for a military presence, but rather the restoration of the crew resources. However, a solid contractual basis should be developed for these plans.

The intentions were announced on July 27 by the Russian Navy Commander Vice Admiral Viktor Chirkov. "At the international level, the creation of logistics points in Cuba, the Seychelles and Vietnam is being worked out," Chirkov was quoted by the media. The issue was specifically discussed at the meeting with the leaders of all countries. President of Vietnam Truong Tan Sang has recently held talks with Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev in Moscow and President Putin in Sochi. Cuban leader Raul Castro met with Putin in Moscow earlier this month. A little earlier the President of the Republic of Seychelles, James Michel made an unequivocal statement.

By: Brant

US-JPN-SKOR Naval Exercises Announced

Defense.gov News Release: United States, Republic of Korea and Japanese Naval Exercises Announced

The United States, the Republic of Korea and Japan will conduct a two-day, trilateral naval exercise June 21 - 22 in the waters south of the Korean peninsula.

The exercise will focus on improving interoperability and communications with the ROK Navy and the Japan Maritime Self Defense Force, which can facilitate cooperative disaster relief and maritime security activities in the future. The three navies will conduct this exercise beyond the territorial waters of any coastal nation.

The United States will then conduct a routine carrier operation with the ROK Navy in the Yellow Sea immediately after the trilateral exercise June 23 - 25.

The George Washington Carrier Strike Group will make a port call in Busan, South Korea, after completing the two exercises.

Note that there's no mention of either China or the Norks.

By: Brant

Focus on China? Or Just Seeking a Focus?

Is AirSea Battle's focus on China an approach with built-in belligerence? And if not China, what threat out there guides strategic developments of the military?

In spite of this, AirSea Battle and its most recent manifestation, the Joint Operating Access Concept, are controversial. Some critics see it as an attempt by the navy and the air force, after a decade of relative neglect, to grab the lion’s share of a shrinking defence budget—already being trimmed by about $480 billion over the next ten years.

Others fear that although the concept does not mention China by name, it is the only opponent with the range of capabilities the new thinking is designed to counter. (Significantly, the Chinese defence minister did not attend the Shangri-La get-together; see article.) And whereas the 1980s predecessor of AirSea Battle, AirLand Battle, was intended to meet the real threat of a thrust by Soviet forces into Western Europe, the threat from China to America and its regional allies is harder to define. In a speech last month at the Joint Warfighting Conference, General James Cartwright, vice-chairman of the joint chiefs of staff until last year, said of AirSea Battle: “To some, it’s becoming the Holy Grail…[but] it’s neither a doctrine nor a scenario.” Worst of all, said General Cartwright, “AirSea Battle is demonising China. That’s not in anybody’s interest.”

Nathan Freier, of the Washington-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies, argues in a recent paper that although conflict with China “might be the most lethal set of circumstances from a traditional military standpoint, it is also the least likely and the most speculative.” North Korea, Pakistan and Iran (with their actual or putative nuclear arsenals) and even Syria all represent more realistic A2/AD challenges, which might well require the insertion of the ground forces that AirSea Battle ignores.

Other critics, such as Noel Williams, an adviser on strategy to the marine corps, point to the risk of escalation—because of the dependence on deep strike against Chinese targets on land—and to the absence of ideas about what happens without ground forces once a strike is made.

By: Brant

China Provoking the Philippines?

The Chinese are sending more ships to the disputed Scarborough shoal.

The Philippine military on Thursday accused China of sending more ships to a disputed shoal in the South China Sea, describing the move as an insult that would further inflame tensions.
Four Chinese surveillance ships and 10 fishing boats have anchored off the disputed Scarborough Shoal, with the fishermen taking giant clams and corals that are protected under Philippine law, a regional military spokesman said.
It is the largest number of Chinese vessels seen at the shoal since the two countries began a sovereignty standoff there almost a month ago, according to Major Loel Egos, whose northern command covers the area.
"They are just worsening the insult, bringing in all these fishing boats and all we can do is resort to diplomacy," Egos told AFP.
"They really want to test what a little country like the Philippines can do against a giant."
Egos said the Philippines, which has one of the weakest militaries in the region, has just two coast guard ships and a fisheries bureau vessel at the shoal that are unable to do anything about the Chinese fishing.

By: Brant

Philippines and China Facing Off

The Philippines have withdrawn their warship in their stand-off with China

The Philippines says it has withdrawn its largest warship from a continuing stand-off with Chinese boats in the disputed South China Sea.

Earlier on Thursday a Philippine coastguard vessel arrived in the area, known as the Scarborough Shoal.

The Philippines also says China has sent a third ship to the scene.

The Philippine foreign minister said negotiations with China would continue. Both claim the shoal off the Philippines' north-west coast.

The Philippines said its warship found eight Chinese fishing vessels at the shoal when it was patrolling the area on Sunday.

It did not say why the warship had been pulled back. "That is an operational undertaking I can't discuss with you," Foreign Affairs Secretary Albert del Rosario was quoted by AFP news agency as saying.

"We are pursuing the diplomatic track in terms of coming to a resolution on the issue," Mr Del Rosario said.

The most ridiculous part of this is looking at the map from the BBC, with the territorial area claimed by China. It's kind of like looking at what the Japanese tried to claim back in WWII...

By: Brant

Iran Flexing Muscles, World Flexing Back?

The US is reporting that Iranian meddling visible in Yemen.

Iran is becoming more active in Yemen and could pose a deeper threat to its stability and security, the U.S. envoy to Yemen said on Monday, highlighting what would be yet another layer of uncertainty in a near-failed state.
U.S. Ambassador Gerald Feierstein's warning is likely to reinforce long-held fears among Sunni Gulf monarchies that Shi'ite Muslim power Iran is trying exploit regional unrest.
"We do see Iran trying to increase its presence here, in ways that we believe are unhelpful to Yemen's stability and security," Feierstein said in an interview one day before Yemenis head to the polls to elect a new president to replace Ali Abdullah Saleh, ending his three decades in power.

Their ships have docked in Syria.

Meanwhile two Iranian naval ships docked at the Syrian port of Tartous on Saturday, Iran's state-run Press TV reported. The ships were said to be providing training for Syrian naval forces under an agreement signed a year ago.
Iranian Defence Minister Ahmad Vahidi, quoted by the semi-official Fars news agency, said: "Our ships passed through the Suez canal and it is Iran's right to have a presence in international waters."

And now Israel is looking to solve the Iranian nuclear problem theirownselvesthankyouverymuch.

In their warnings, both the U.S. joint chiefs of staff, Gen. Martin Dempsey, and British Foreign Minister William Hague said an Israeli attack on Iran would have grave consequences for the entire region and urged Israel to give international sanctions against Iran more time to work. Dempsey said an Israeli attack is "not prudent," and Hague said it would not be "a wise thing."
Both Israel and the West believe Iran is trying to develop a nuclear bomb — a charge Tehran denies. But differences have emerged in how to respond to the perceived threat.
The U.S. and the European Union have both imposed harsh new sanctions targeting Iran's oil sector, the lifeline of the Iranian economy. With the sanctions just beginning to bite, they have expressed optimism that Iran can be persuaded to curb its nuclear ambitions.
On Sunday, Iran's Oil Ministry said it has halted oil shipments to Britain and France in an apparent pre-emptive blow against the European Union. The semiofficial Mehr news agency said the National Iranian Oil Company has sent letters to some European refineries with an ultimatum to either sign long-term contracts of two to five years or be cut off. The 27-nation EU accounts for about 18 percent of Iran's oil exports.

By: Brant

Iranian Navy in the Med

I'm pretty sure this variant wasn't in Persian Incursion.

Iranian warships entered the Mediterranean Sea after crossing the Suez Canal on Saturday to show Tehran's "might" to regional countries, the navy commander said, amid simmering tensions with Israel.
"The strategic navy of the Islamic Republic of Iran has passed through the Suez Canal for the second time since the (1979) Islamic Revolution," Admiral Habibollah Sayari said in remarks quoted by the official IRNA news agency.
He did not say how many vessels had crossed the canal, or what missions they were planning to carry out in the Mediterranean, but said the flotilla had previously docked in the Saudi port city of Jeddah.
Two Iranian ships, the destroyer Shahid Qandi and supply vessel Kharg, had docked in the Red Sea port on February 4, according to Iranian media.
Sayari said the naval deployment to the Mediterranean would show "the might" of the Islamic republic to regional countries, and also convey Tehran's "message of peace and friendship."

So what exactly is the message? "We're mighty peaceful and friendly"?

By: Brant

Chinese Navy Ranging Far & Wide

Their anti-piracy training is just another step toward a consistent world-wide blue-water force.

China's fast-modernizing navy is stepping up training for anti-piracy patrols off the coast of Somalia in a sign of its growing long-term commitment to overseas missions.
The first two-week course for 84 leading officers began this week at the Naval Command College in the eastern Chinese city of Nanjing, the website of the military newspaper Liberation Army Daily said Friday. The officers will run drills and discuss military theory and experiences from China's previous anti-piracy missions, it said.
China first launched the anti-piracy patrols in December 2008, joining an international flotilla aiming to protect shipping in the Gulf of Aden. More than a dozen separate missions have followed, each consisting of two of the navy's most sophisticated missile frigates accompanied by a support ship.
The patrols marked a major break with the navy's traditional role of protecting China's coastal region, as well as Beijing's oft-stated opposition to foreign military interventions or overseas bases.
Along with boosting the navy's blue water capabilities in operations and resupply, the patrols appear to have whetted Beijing's appetite for even more ambitious missions.
In recent years, the navy has dispatched ships as far away as the Caribbean, and last year sent vessels to the Mediterranean to escort ships evacuating Chinese citizens from Libya.
Such moves have been facilitated by a wide-ranging naval upgrade fueled by double-digit annual increases in Chinese defense spending. Along with new destroyers, submarines and naval aircraft, Beijing last year began sea trials on its first aircraft carrier, a refurbished model purchased from Ukraine more than a decade ago.

By: Brant

Sound Off! Brown, Blue, or Green?

For our squids out there...

What's the more important naval force?

... Blue-water navy, controlling the high seas?

... Brown-water navy, fighting in the littorals close to shore?

... Green-water navy, patrolling the rivers and ports?

Float your ideas below!

By: Brant

New Iranian Maneuvers... More Saber-Rattling?

February will bring a new round of maneuvers in the Hormuz Strait.

Iran announced plans on Friday to hold new naval exercises in the Strait of Hormuz next month, the latest in a series of forceful gestures in the world's most important oil shipping lane at a time when new sanctions threaten Tehran's exports.
Rear Admiral Ali Fadavi, naval commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps, said the exercises in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz in February would be different from previous exercises, but gave no further details, according to remarks reported by the semi-official Fars news agency.
"Today the Islamic Republic of Iran has full domination over the region and controls all movements within it," he said.
Iran held a 10-day drill which ended on Monday in the strait, which leads out of the Gulf and provides the main export route for the Middle East's oil.

By: Brant

Iran Rattling MIssile-Shaped Sabers

Iran's recent naval maneuvers included test-firing long-range missiles.

Iran said on Monday it had successfully test-fired two long-range missiles during a naval exercise in the Gulf, flexing its military muscle to show it could hit Israel and U.S. bases in the region if attacked.
In response to mounting Western pressure over its nuclear ambitions, Iran started a naval drill in the Gulf last week and warned that it could shut the Strait of Hormuz if sanctions were imposed on its oil exports, the country's main revenue source.
The 10 days of naval wargames and the warning over the Strait, a narrow Gulf shipping lane through which 40 percent of world oil passes, have rattled oil markets and pushed up crude prices.
Analysts say Iran's increasingly strident rhetoric is aimed at sending a message to the West that it should think twice about the economic cost of putting further pressure on Tehran.
"We have successfully test-fired long-range shore-to-sea and surface-to-surface missiles, called Qader (capable) and Nour (Light) today," Deputy Navy Commander Mahmoud Mousavi told state television.

By: Brant

Can Iran's Ass Cash the Checks Their Mouths Are Writing?

They're threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz. Can Iran really do it?

Since it doesn't have nuclear weapons yet, Iran is playing the lone trump card in its hand: threatening to shut down the Strait of Hormuz through which Persian Gulf oil flows to fuel much of the world's economy. Iranian navy chief Admiral Habibollah Sayyari told state television Wednesday that it would be "very easy" for his forces to shut down the chokepoint. "Iran has comprehensive control over the strategic waterway," he said as his vessels continued a 10-day exercise near the strait.
But just how good a trump card is it?
"Iran has constructed a navy with considerable asymmetric and other capabilities designed specifically to be used in an integrated way to conduct area denial operations in the Persian Gulf and SoH, and they routinely exercise these capabilities and issue statements of intent to use them," Jonathan Schroden writes in a recent report for the Pentagon-funded Center for Naval Analyses. "This combination of capabilities and expressed intent does present a credible threat to international shipping in the Strait."
Not so fast, other experts maintain. "We believe that we would be able to maintain the strait," Marine General James Cartwright, then-vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told Congress last year. "But it would be a question of time and impact and the implications from a global standpoint on the flow of energy, et cetera, [that] would have ramifications probably beyond the military actions that would go on."

By: Brant

Iranian Navy Exercises in International Waters

Hoping to improve of their performances since the Battle of Salamis, the Iranian navy is is holding exercises just outside the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran's navy has begun a 10-day drill in international waters beyond the strategic Strait of Hormuz at the mouth of the Persian Gulf, the passageway for about a third of the world's oil tanker traffic.
The exercise could bring Iranian ships into proximity with U.S. Navy vessels in the area.
Navy chief Adm. Habibollah Sayyari says Iran is holding the war games to show off its prowess and defense capabilities. State TV broadcast his comments on Saturday.

By: Brant

Chinese Aircraft Carrier Imaged By Satellite

U.S. satellite imaging firm Digital Globe has released a satellite photograph believed to be of the Chinese aircraft carrier Varyag during sea trials in the Yellow Sea.

By: Shelldrake

China Naval Base Abroad?

Are the Chinese going to establish their first naval base abroad?

China said Tuesday it is considering an offer from the Seychelles to host Chinese naval ships in the Indian Ocean island nation, highlighting the increasing global reach of a navy that recently launched its first aircraft carrier.
State-run media gave prominent coverage to the Seychelles offer to allow rest and resupply for Chinese ships in the multinational force conducting anti-piracy patrols off the coast of Somalia, which China has joined since late 2008.
But the reports were careful to reaffirm China's firm policy of not establishing permanent military bases overseas, a cornerstone of Beijing's claim not to be seeking regional hegemony or military alliances with other nations.
"China's position is clear. China has never set up military bases in other countries," Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Weimin told reporters at a daily news briefing.
Chinese ships assigned to the anti-piracy patrols in the Gulf of Aden have visited several ports to allow their crews to rest and to take on supplies, including in Yemen and Oman on the Arabian Peninsula and Djibouti on the Horn of Africa.

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By: Brant

Philippine Military Refocusing Away from COIN?

After spending years tamping down a variety of insurgencies, the Philippine military is likely to start refocusing off-shore, particularly on the Spratly Islands, which China somehow seems to think are theirs, despite about 7 other countries having better claims to them.

A battle-scarred general took leadership of the underfunded Philippine military Monday, vowing to bolster his country's external defense so it could adequately respond to "untoward incidents" amid territorial disputes in the South China Sea.
The 125,000-member Philippine military, one of Asia's weakest, has been struggling to modernize its dilapidated air force and navy and train its forces due to a lack of funds. President Benigno Aquino III recently said he would seek modern fighter jets from longtime ally Washington when he visits next year.
Army Lt. Gen. Jessie Dellosa, who took over the military leadership in austere ceremonies led by Aquino on Monday, said recent developments in the South China Sea — obviously referring to renewed territorial spats in the potentially oil-rich region — have made upgrading external defenses inevitable for the Philippines.
"It compels us to look into our maritime security deeply," Dellosa said in his speech. "Development of navy and air force bases and facilities to efficiently respond to untoward incidents is something we can no longer ignore."
Dellosa formerly was an army combat officer and was wounded twice while battling Muslim guerrillas and al-Qaida-linked militants in the southern Philippines. He also led an elite unit that helped Aquino's mother, the late pro-democracy Philippine leader Corazon Aquino, subdue coup attempts.

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By: Brant

GI Jane, er... What's "Jane" in Spanish...?

Mexico' Navy has their first female in their special forces.

Mexico's navy says the first woman has joined the ranks of its special forces.
The unidentified woman graduated from special forces training along with 12 men.
The navy is giving no other details and doesn't say in its Friday announcement if women had previously been barred from joining its special forces units, or whether none had applied.
The navy's special forces have taken an increasing role in the Mexican government's fight against drug traffickers, but the navy hasn't specified what duties the woman will be performing.

So what's the "Mexican Navy Special Forces"? Here's what Wikipedia knows about the "Fuerzas Especiales".

By: Brant

Canadian Frigate To Remain In The Med

Her Majesty’s Canadian Ship (HMCS) Vancouver, originally deployed as part of Operation Unified Protector, will remain in the Mediterranean until early 2012, when she will be relieved by HMCS Charlottetown. HMCS Vancouver and her CH-124 Sea King Helicopter detachment have been in the Mediterranean Sea since August, when she joined the NATO fleet off Libya as part of Operation Unified Protector.

By: Shelldrake