F-16s to Taiwan Back On?

While the Chinese are distracted with internal political issues, will the US push through a fighter sale to Taiwan?

Just as everything was becoming as clear as mud, America has unexpectedly raised the possibility that it might sell Taiwan the F-16 C/D fighter jets that it has been requesting since 2006. The move would infuriate China. Officials in Beijing have in the past voiced strenuous opposition to the sale of F-16 C/Ds, marking it as a line in the sand, of the kind that can’t be crossed.

As it stands, the gesture was remarkably blunt. Days before the arrival of Hillary Clinton, America’s secretary of state, and smack dab in the middle of confusions to do with the custody of Chen Guangcheng, the boffins in charge of America’s foreign affairs have made things much tougher than they might have done, had they tarried for some weeks or months. It was on Friday that the White House said, seemingly out of the blue, that it is “mindful of...Taiwan’s growing shortfall in fighter aircraft” and “committed to assisting Taiwan in addressing the disparity in numbers of aircraft through our work with Taiwan’s defence ministry.”

Looking at the current Taiwanese air force...

No one in Taiwan doubts that the island needs new jets. China has 2,300 military aircraft in service, to Taiwan’s 490. Of those 490, around 60 are elderly F-5 jets that were sold to Taiwan during the Reagan administration. Another 50-odd are French-made Mirage fighters which are scheduled for retirement over the next several years; their maintenance and spare parts have become too expensive. The U.S.-Taiwan Business Council, a lobby group which represents American defence companies, among others, estimates that Taiwan will have as few as 75 usable modern fighters at its disposal from 2016 to 2022, while the F-16 A/B planes are undergoing upgrades.

F-5

source: Wikimedia

By: Brant

Sobering Analysis of an Air War Over Taiwan

Say we commit to defending Taiwan, and the Chinese take a whack at it anyway. There's a pretty detailed analysis about what that fight would look like, and Robert Haddick's synopsis at Foreign Policy is not a pleasant one.

In a Ph.D. dissertation written for the Pardee RAND Graduate School, Eric Stephen Gons provides an exhaustive analysis of a simulated battle between the U.S. and Chinese air forces for the airspace over Taiwan. Gons's analysis takes into account the air bases available to both sides, their aircraft parking capacity, air base vulnerability and hardening, air defense systems, sortie generation rates, aircraft maintenance requirements, crew fatigue, probable weapons effectiveness, time and distance considerations, and other factors.

Even though the U.S. Air Force's F-22 Raptor is far superior to its Chinese opponents, Gons concludes that the "tyranny of distance" will prevent the U.S. Air Force from winning a shootout over Taiwan. The Air Force's base on Guam, a three-hour flight to Taiwan, is the only viable U.S. base for the island's air defense. Although the U.S. has high quality air bases on Okinawa and Japan's home islands, these bases are very close to China and are thus vulnerable to China's massive arsenal of land-attack cruise and ballistic missiles. In addition, Gons asserts the Air Force would not operate its expensive and limited tanker and early warning support aircraft from these Japanese bases since they would be highly vulnerable to Chinese attack. This would preclude F-22 operations to Taiwan from these bases.

That leaves Andersen Air Base on Guam, which even when stuffed to capacity with F-22s and required support aircraft could only provide a continuous combat air patrol over Taiwan of just six fighters. The Chinese attackers, by contrast, operating from at least a dozen hardened and heavily defended air bases in southeast China, could sorties dozens or even hundreds of fighters over Taiwan at will. Six F-22s simply do not carry enough missiles to prevent Chinese fighters from breaking through and shooting down the Air Force tanker and early-warning aircraft supporting the F-22s east of Taiwan. In this case, the F-22s would be lost to fuel exhaustion and the United States would be forced to retreat, at least for the moment. Nor does Gons expect much help from the Navy. He estimates that the relatively short range of the Navy's aircraft carrier-based fighters, combined with the growing Chinese anti-ship missile threat, would dissuade the admirals from risking air operations over Taiwan.

Is it time for Larry Bond and the Persian Incursion crew to put together a Taiwan game?

By: Brant

Taiwan's Public Missile Test Less Than Successful

A public test in which 6 of 19 Taiwanese missiles failed to hit their targets has raised concerns about the preparedness of Taiwan's military.

If Taiwan's unusually public test-firing of 19 missiles Tuesday was intended as a statement following China's successful trial of a new stealth aircraft, the message came out a bit garbled.

Taiwan's president was on hand as almost a third of the missiles missed their targets, raising questions rather than reassuring the public about the self-ruled island's readiness to defend itself against an attack from the mainland.

President Ma Ying-jeou's attendance at the drills at a base in Taiwan's south was ostensibly to underscore his commitment to an effective Taiwanese deterrent, following criticism that the island's defense has been undermined by his policy of reconciling with the mainland.

[snip...]

The missile tests were the first held in full view of the press for almost a decade. They were meant, Ma said, "to bring more transparency into military affairs and allow the public to view the military's readiness."

But under a cloud-speckled winter sky, six of the missiles failed to hit their targets, including one RIM-7M Sparrow, which cascaded harmlessly into the South China Sea less than 30 seconds after launch. Other missiles tested included Sky Bow IIs - which have a range of 125 miles (200 kilometers) - MIM-23 Hawks and FIM-92 Stingers.

By: Shelldrake

Pentagon Reports On China's Military Expansion

The Pentagon has released a new report that details China's military build-up and its implications for Taiwan and the US.

"China's long-term, comprehensive transformation of its military forces is improving its capacity for force projection and anti-access/ area-denial," states the Pentagon's annual report on Chinese military power. Its ability to sustain such a move, however, remains limited, DoD notes.

"Consistent with a near term focus on preparing for Taiwan Strait contingencies, China continues to deploy many of its most advanced systems to the military regions … opposite Taiwan," according to the report, released Aug. 16.

Beijing's relationship with Taiwan is improving - but so is China's rapid military build-up.

"Cross-strait economic and cultural ties continued to make important progress in 2009. Despite these positive trends, China's military build-up opposite the island continued unabated," states the DoD report.

"The PLA is developing the capability to deter Taiwan independence or influence Taiwan to settle the dispute on Beijing's terms while simultaneously attempting to deter, delay, or deny any possible U.S. support for the island in case of conflict," according to the report. "The balance of cross-Strait military forces continues to shift in the mainland's favor."

As far as Washington and Beijing, the report stresses the importance of military-to-military relations. It also includes a quote from U.S. President Obama stating his belief that it is not "predestined" that America and China ever become adversaries.

By: Shelldrake

CONSOLIDATING THE TWO ARTICLES - great minds think alike, eh?

A military report on China says that its military power is growing, and many of the capabilities are out of sight.

China's drive to transform itself into a major military power is being pursued in a secretive manner that increases the potential for misunderstanding and military conflict with other nations, the Pentagon says in a new report.
The Defense Department's annual assessment, released Monday, says Beijing is upgrading its hefty arsenal of land-based missiles, modernizing its nuclear forces and expanding its fleet of attack submarines.
The effort comes as China has suspended military-to-military talks with the U.S., which could reassure the U.S. about the motives behind Beijing's military buildup.
U.S.-China relations have been particularly strained in recent months, as China rejected the results of an investigation blaming North Korea for the sinking of a South Korean warship. China's military buildup also is seen as a threat to the U.S. ability to defend Taiwan.
The congressionally mandated report doesn't contain any surprises. It's long been known that China — emerging as a world economic powerhouse — is pouring billions of dollars into offensive and defensive military capabilities to protect its regional interests.

The BBC's report includes other additional details.

China has 1,150 short-range ballistic missiles and an unknown number of medium-range missiles, the report says.
The billions of dollars in expenditure has been conducted largely out of the public eye, the report alleges.
"The limited transparency in China's military and security affairs enhances uncertainty and increases the potential for misunderstanding and miscalculation," it says.
Recent commentaries from the Chinese military establishment have complained about large-scale military exercises held by the US and South Korea.
They have spoken of an alleged policy of US "encirclement" that threatens China's core interests.
China has also criticised what it sees as unwarranted interference by the US in one of those core interests, China's claim to much of the South China Sea.
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton recently told a regional summit in Vietnam that it supported non-Chinese claimants to the sea.

By: Brant

Taiwan Not Happy with China's Support of the Norks

The "Rogue Province" is not particularly happy with the old country's support of a dangerous regime whose nukes are not likely to be well-secured when/if the house of cards tumbles down.

The decision by the People's Republic of China to continue to offer resolute support and substantive assistance to North Korea's dictator Kim Jung-li last week should spark a re-evaluation of Beijing's role as a "responsible stakeholder" in the world community.
The visit by the reclusive North Korean autocrat on his private armored train last week followed the still mysterious sinking of a South Korean corvette with the loss of 46 lives off the western North Korean coast in late March that has intensified tensions between Pyongyang and Seoul.

Besides reports of ill health, Kim Jung-il faces a formidable array of problems, including the failure of a major currency reform program, the fall-out of the mysterious sinking of a South Korean navy corvette off the western North Korean coast in late March and the murky prospects for succession to his third and youngest son, 27 - year old Kim Jong-un.

The PRC's authoritarian Chinese Communist Party regime offers the only possible source of succour for Kim Jung-il and did not disappoint its pariah client.

In exchange for pro forma promise by Kim to return to the stalled six-party talks on North Korea's nuclear weapons program, PRC State Chairman Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao not only reaffirmed the "friendship forged in blood" between the PRC and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea but also apparently provided enough substantive assistance to make Kim "feel satisfied."

By: Brant

How Would Taiwan-US Relations Play Out In A War?

Are Taiwan's public statements about US assistance in a war politically-motivated? Or Is there something more under the surface?

Taiwan will never ask the United States to help fight a war, officials said on Monday in comments that could ease regional tension but shake views the island needs the world military superpower to battle China.

In a statement seen appeasing both Washington and Beijing, Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou had told a visiting television reporter over the weekend that the island would stand up for itself, suggesting the United States was not obligated to send help and risk its own conflict with China.

Removing U.S. military aid from the equation would lower the odds of a prolonged conflict involving Taiwan despite its decades of political hostilities with China. That shift could firm market sentiment already buoyed by two years of detente and trade talks.

China claims self-ruled Taiwan as part of its territory and leads the island in military might, but the China-friendly president said on television he would "never ask the Americans to fight for Taiwan."

Washington, which had no immediate comment on the president's remarks, could decide on its own whether to help Taiwan, cabinet spokesman Johnny Chiang said on Monday following protests from Taiwan's anti-China main opposition party.

"The president is saying Taiwan is resolved to protect itself," Chiang told Reuters. "What he means is that he hopes he doesn't need to see the United States involved in any war."

The United States, Taiwan's staunchest ally and chief arms supplier, is bound by its 1979 Taiwan Relations Act to help defend the island but as it seeks better ties with Beijing has hedged on saying how far it would go in the event of a war.

Want a great game on the potential conflict? Check out Red Dragon Rising from S&T.

By: Brant

Looking into Taiwan

Another spiffy Reuters factbox, this time looking at Taiwan, which is facing less of a military threat and more of a political-economic threat.

Following is a summary of key Taiwan risks to watch:

INTEREST RATE POLICY AND CAPITAL CONTROLS
Taiwan's central bank said in March it had ended its loose monetary policy due to tentative signs of economic recovery after a deep recession, but economists expect rates to stay relatively low at least through the mid-year unless the U.S. Fed acts sooner or inflation spikes for several months. But faced with growing discontent over rising housing prices and fears of a real estate bubble in an election year, the central bank may move to curb prices and speculation.
Another key issue is coping with flows of "hot money" that have been buoying Asian asset prices. The interventionist central bank has said it hopes $11 billion in foreign speculative money would start flowing out and regularly moves to stop speculation in the island's currency market. The monetary authority regularly intervenes in the currency market to offset appreciation due to foreign fund inflows, dealers say. The government fears more hot money if China allows its yuan CNY= to appreciate, turning the Taiwan dollar TWD=TP into a proxy. Earlier this year the central bank told local and foreign banks to ensure they follow regulations when trading foreign exchange forward contracts, a move seen as another effort to discourage hot money. Taiwan has also advised foreign funds against investing in local time deposits and government bonds.
What to watch:
-- Comments by ministers and the central bank on monetary policy, for hints of when the benchmark discount rate will be raised.
-- Any sign that capital controls could be tightened further, if hot money inflows do not subside. This would push down the Taiwan dollar. However, analysts do not expect the kind of rigid capital controls that would cause a major exodus of foreign investors.
-- A hike in reserve ratio requirements or other moves to control mortgage lending

CROSS-STRAIT RELATIONS
President Ma Ying-jeou's promotion of closer economic ties with China has boosted trade and reduced the risk of military conflict. The government is pressing ahead with achieving an economic cooperation framework agreement, the precursor to a free trade deal, ideally to be signed in early 2010. Taiwan's stock market opened this year to qualified Chinese investors. But the issue of ties with China remains highly divisive in Taiwan and there is always the risk of new controversies, especially as 2010 is a local election year with the winning party having a strong shot at the 2012 presidential race. In local elections last December, seen as a test of Ma's policy of engagement with Beijing, his government lost some ground. The most recent controversy was the Sino-U.S. row over Washington's planned $6.4 billion arms sales package to Taiwan, a self-ruled island that Beijing claims as its own.
What to watch:
-- Fallout from the row over U.S. arms sales. If the issue threatens progress in closer economic ties with China, the impact on Taiwan asset prices will be negative, with stocks of firms that have benefited from greater access to China hit the hardest. Washington is also weighing Taiwan's request for new F-16 fighter jets, a sale described as a "red line" for Sino-U.S. relations.
-- The chance of a historic meeting between Ma and Chinese President Hu Jintao, tipped to take place in 2012 if Ma wins re-election that year. It would signal strongly improved ties.
-- Results of tense year-end local elections covering about 60 percent of the electorate and the island's major cities. If the ruling party wins big, it signals more trade dialogue with China. If the opposition gains, China relations could sour.
-- Passage of the economic cooperation framework agreement. Factions of Taiwan's parliament and the island's anti-China main opposition party have raised questions that could set back the deal's final approval.

GOVERNMENT EFFECTIVENESS
Ma has a strong mandate to govern, as the KMT controls parliament and the presidency. This has been positive for government effectiveness and avoiding political deadlock.
But widespread criticism of the response to Typhoon Morakot last year dented government popularity and led to a cabinet reshuffle. A sudden deal in October to allow U.S. beef imports despite mad cow disease fears also backfired, prompting Taiwan's parliament to scrap part of the agreement and irritating Washington. The high degree of polarisation between the two major parties, the China-friendly Nationalists (KMT) and the anti-China opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), raises questions about government effectiveness.
What to watch:
-- Markets are unlikely to be impacted much by any political controversies unless they significantly weaken the KMT's hold on power. If that happened, the risk of policy deadlock and frostier ties with China would chill markets.

ECONOMIC REFORM
Taiwan continues to place limits on foreign portfolio investment and restricts foreign direct investment in some sectors. As the economy recovers, investors will start to focus again on whether economic reform may relax some restrictions.
What to watch:
-- Any announcement from the government on economic reform and measures to boost foreign investment. This would be broadly positive for the stock market.

By: Brant

Nervousness in the Pacific

Taiwan has gone on military alert following the sinking of the South Korean naval vessel.

Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou activated the country's national security mechanism on Friday after a South Korean naval ship sank in the Yellow Sea, the island's Central News Agency reported.

Ma, who was on a tour of South Pacific islands, consulted with top officials and ordered the country's minister of national defence to monitor developments and "adopt necessary response measures," the official agency said.

About 40 crewmen were believed missing after the South Korean naval ship Cheonan sank near the North Korean border on the west side of the peninsula opposite China late Friday.

A South Korean presidential spokeswoman said it was unclear whether the sinking resulted from a clash with North Korea.

By: Brant

USS Nimitz Makes Port Call in Hong Kong

Aircraft carrier USS Nimitz (CVN 68) conducts flight operations in the South China Sea Feb. 15, 2010. The Nimitz Carrier Strike Group is conducting operations in the U.S. 7th Fleet area of responsibility in support of the maritime strategy. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class David Mercil/Released)

Even after arms sales to Taiwan and protests by China the USS Nimitz is still making a port call in Hong Kong

Looming out of the mist in Hong Kong's harbour was the hulking, grey outline of the USS Nimitz.
The aircraft carrier is an unmistakeable symbol of American might.
Behind the US ships, shrouded in cloud were the towers of Hong Kong's skyscrapers, symbols of another rising power, an increasingly wealthy and ambitious China.
The Nimitz and its battle group sailed in to Chinese waters this week and dropped anchor not far from Hong Kong Island.
China had given the go ahead for the visit despite its recent threat to suspend all military exchanges.

On the flight deck of the Nimitz fighter jets were parked in neat lines.
Armed guards patrolled the deck keeping watch. In recent weeks tensions between America and China have been growing.

By: Brant

BUB: World Roundup 021600ZFEB2010

Russian paranoia is alive and well as the Russians are insistent that the U.S. missile defense shield is squarely pointed at them.

The U.S. missile defense plan in Europe is directed at Russia and should be included in the talks on a new arms control deal, Russia's top general said on Tuesday.

"The development and deployment of the missile defense system is aimed at Russia," Russia's armed forces chief of staff, Gen. Nikolai Makarov, said in televised remarks.

"Despite statements from officials that it will ensure our security, this is not the case," he said.

Russia had a negative assessment of the U.S. plan, which could weaken its strategic deterrence potential, he said.

Makarov blamed disputes over whether a new document should demonstrate links between offensive and defensive weapons for delays in signing a successor to the expired Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty.

The plan must be part of the negotiations on a new arms reduction treaty, he said.

+++

Odd that the Russians are focused on removing missile defenses, while the continentals are focused on removing the actual missiles.

Germany's new coalition government is calling for U.S. nuclear missiles to be removed from Europe. A London research organization says Germany's announcement has reopened the global debate about whether nuclear weapons help or hinder global security.

U.S. President Barack Obama put forth his vision of a nuclear-free world in a speech last April in Prague.

"The United States will take concrete steps towards a world without nuclear weapons. To put an end to Cold War thinking, we will reduce the role of nuclear weapons in our national security strategy and urge others to do the same. Make no mistake, as long as these weapons exist, the United States will maintain a safe, secure and effective arsenal to deter any adversary and guarantee that defense to our allies, including the Czech republic," Mr. Obama said.

The U.S. administration will make its nuclear policy clear with a paper known as the Nuclear Posture Review expected to be reported to the U.S. Congress this month. In the meantime, the German government has called for the removal of U.S. tactical weapons on its soil and from Europe altogether.

Former NATO Secretary General George Robertson says that is a bad idea.

"I think that they have not yet fully realized how symbolically important the American nuclear umbrella is, and how dangerous it might be and how risky it might be if one component of America's nuclear guarantee was to be removed without considering all of the consequences," Robertson said.

+++


Taiwan is trying to lower the tensions with China, and dropping their request of US submarines.

Taiwan has effectively dropped a request for U.S. submarines to help shore up the balance of power with political rival China, a military source said on Tuesday, dissolving what could be a new rift in tense Sino-U.S. ties.

+++

No idea if that will result in China dropping their idea of waging economic warfare on the US in retaliation.

Several high-ranking Chinese military officers want Beijing to sell off U.S. Treasurys as a part of measures to punish Washington for its recent approval of new arms sales to Taiwan, according to a report Wednesday.

A U.S. sovereign-bond sale was part of broad retaliation measures under study by military personnel at the National Defense University and Academy of Military Sciences, according to a Reuters report citing interviews with the officers that appeared in the state-run Outlook Weekly.

+++

The Stolen Valor act is still being kicked around the op-ed pages as it waits to go before the courts.

Especially at a time when the United States is fighting two wars, valor in battle is venerated, even by those who may disagree with policies that put our warriors in harm's way. So it's particularly despicable for political candidates or others to lie about having received military honors. But the proper response to such repellent résumé padding is exposure, scorn and, where politicians are concerned, rejection at the ballot box — not arrest and imprisonment.
Congress apparently disagrees, and in 2006 passed the Stolen Valor Act, which expanded a previous law against fraudulently wearing a service medal to include falsely representing that one had received that honor. Violators can be fined or jailed for up to six months. Now two men — one from California — are challenging the constitutionality of the act. The federal courts should rule in their favor, not because their misrepresentation is innocuous — it's not — but because criminalizing lies that aren't part of a fraud would open a loophole in the First Amendment's protection of free speech.

+++

And in Afghanistan, NATO has arrested a local Afghan cop who's been aiding and abetting the Taliban.

NATO forces swooped down on the home of a senior Afghan police official, arrested him and accused him of helping insurgents make and plant roadside bombs, Western military officials said Sunday.

The incident, which took place last week in Kapisa province in eastern Afghanistan, is likely to raise tensions between foreign forces and the national police.

That partnership is considered a crucial element of plans by the Obama administration to draw down American forces starting next year. Before any large-scale Western pullout occurs, Afghan security forces are supposed to take on more responsibility for safeguarding the country.

If the charges against the arrested official are borne out, the case would represent one of the most serious instances to date of complicity with the Taliban or other militant groups by a ranking Afghan security official.

But Afghan officials raised doubts about the man's guilt, and the Interior Ministry, which oversees the national police, said the North Atlantic Treaty Organization had been asked for an explanation.

In a statement describing Friday's raid, NATO did not name the official, who was arrested along with a bodyguard. But provincial authorities identified him as Attaullah Wahab, who served as the deputy chief and security head of the national police in the province.

By: Brant

Perspective on US-China Relations

Reuters has some interesting perspective articles, too.
Q A: Why is China so sensitive about Taiwan?

WHAT IS THE HISTORICAL BACKGROUND?
The island formally became a Chinese province only in 1887. But China's faltering Qing imperial government was forced to cede it to Japan in 1895 after a brief war. Japan ran Taiwan as a colony until 1945, when it was effectively handed over to Chiang Kai-shek's Nationalist (KMT) government in China.
In 1949 Mao Zedong's forces won the Chinese civil war and the KMT fled to the island, ruling it under martial law until democratizing in the 1980s, while the Communists controlled China. No peace treaty has ever been signed.

WHAT IS CHINA'S OFFICIAL POSITION ON TAIWAN?
That Taiwan is, was and always has been an inseparable part of China, and that international law supports China's claim. Citizens of China learn this from childhood, and there is no public discussion of alternate views.
China's ruling Communist Party wants outright reunification, the sooner the better, seeing the recovery of the island as the final chapter in the civil war and end of past humiliations when China was forced to cede territory to foreigners.
While in recent years China has tempered overt threats of force to take self-ruled Taiwan, its military build-up has continued.
Taiwan's defense ministry says that, despite easing strains between the two sides, there is no sign China has withdrawn any of the estimated 1,400 missiles it has aimed at the island.

WHAT IS TAIWAN'S OFFICIAL POSITION ON CHINA?
It depends on who is in power. The KMT long ago gave up its ambitions to "recover" China, though it has not dropped its claim to the territory of today's mainland China from its constitution.
Taiwan's KMT President Ma Ying-jeou says reunification can only happen once China democratizes, a prospect that seems unlikely in the short term. Ma has said reunification was unlikely in the near future.
The island's opposition Democratic Progressive Party, whose Chen Shui-bian riled China when he was president from 2000-2008, wants the island eventually to declare formal independence.

WHAT WOULD TAIWAN INDEPENDENCE MEAN?
The abandonment of the island's official name the Republic of China, a redefinition of territory cutting out China and the constitutional establishment of Taiwan as a nation.
China has made clear it would view that as an open declaration of war.
Supporters of independence dispute China's legal and historic claims on the island. They argue that China is alien to Taiwan politically and socially despite common ethnic roots, especially after decades of division.
Independence supporters see little reason, apart from avoiding military conflict, to give up their hard-won democracy in exchange for even indirect rule by China's autocratic Communist Party.

WHAT IS U.S. POLICY TOWARD TAIWAN?
Washington formally acknowledges the "one China" policy and switched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 1979. But the Taiwan Relations Act, passed by Congress the same year, obliges it to sell Taiwan weapons to defend itself.
The United States also says that the people of Taiwan must be consulted on any changes to the island's status, whether that be reunification with China or outright independence.

WHAT ARE WASHINGTON'S BROADER STRATEGIC CONCERNS?
Taiwan is a democracy and strong unofficial ally of the United States. Along with Japan, South Korea and the Philippines, it thus provides an important bulwark against China in the Asia Pacific region.
U.S. officials have voiced concerns about a lack of transparency surrounding China's growing military spending.
During the Cold War, Washington viewed Taiwan as part of its "domino theory," fearing that if the island fell to Mao it would help spread the reach of Communism throughout Asia.

HOW HAVE PAST CRISES PLAYED OUT?
There have been various "Formosa Straits Crises," as they were termed during the Cold War, targeting small islands off China's coast held by the KMT post-1949.
They involved heavy Chinese artillery bombardments, fierce aerial dog fights and naval clashes. Taiwan evacuated some of the islands, at least one having been taken by force, but to this day holds the Kinmen (also known as Quemoy) and Matsu archipelagos.
The last major crisis was in 1996, when China test fired missiles into the Taiwan Strait to protest against Washington's granting of a visa to then-Taiwan president Lee Teng-hui.
U.S. President Bill Clinton responded by sending an aircraft carrier group through the Strait, and the crisis petered out.

Factbox: How China's anger could hurt ties with the U.S.

MILITARY TIES
China has said it will curtail military contacts with the United States, returning to a freeze imposed in 2008 after the Bush administration flagged the arms sale to Taiwan.
China's official Xinhua news agency said a planned visit by U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates later this year will be shelved, as will talks between the Chinese People's Liberation Army Chief of General Staff, Chen Bingde, and the Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, Mike Mullen. Mutual visits by Chinese and U.S. navy ships will also be affected, said the report.
Defense contacts between China and the United States have, however, always been limited and so there will be scant effect on U.S. operations. Some analysts have also said Beijing might stage more missile tests to demonstrate its anger.

COMMERCIAL SANCTIONS
China has said that U.S. companies involved in selling arms to Taiwan will face "corresponding sanctions," breaking with Beijing's long-standing reluctance to use formal sanctions in international disputes.
The vague warning did not specify when any sanctions would take effect, but companies that could be affected include Sikorsky Aircraft Corp, a unit of United Technologies Corp; Lockheed Martin Corp; Raytheon Co; and McDonnell Douglas, a unit of Boeing Co.
Beijing could face challenges that any such sanctions violate commitments to open trade it has made as a member of the World Trade Organization. In response, it could argue the sanctions are a legitimate act to protect national security.
Even without official penalties, China can informally punish foreign governments and businesses through adverse decisions on tenders, contracts and regulatory disputes.

ECONOMIC AND CURRENCY TIES
China is the world's third-biggest economy, behind Japan and the United States, and holds foreign exchange reserves worth $2.4 trillion. Economists have estimated about two-thirds of those reserves are invested in U.S. dollar-denominated assets.
While China is the single biggest holder of U.S. Treasuries -- owning at least $776.4 billion of U.S. government debt at the end of June 2009, according to statistics -- there have been no signs Beijing will use broader trade penalties or its dollar holdings to punish Washington.
Doing that, or even hinting at it, would jeopardize the value of China's own assets and alarm investors. Beijing appears too focused on shoring up economic growth to risk such steps.
Trading in offshore one-year dollar/yuan non-deliverable forwards on Monday indicated investors foresee a slightly slower appreciation for China's yuan, with Beijing less willing to heed Washington's calls for a currency rise.

INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION
China has said cooperation with the United States over regional and international problems will be hurt by the dispute, but the Chinese Foreign Ministry did not spell out what issues could be affected.
The government is likely to show its anger in oblique ways, such as delaying talks or downgrading representation at them, rather than through substantive policy reversals.
Washington has looked for stronger Chinese support over several international worries, chiefly the nuclear ambitions of Iran and North Korea.
China is a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, and so has the power to veto any proposed resolutions. Its rising influence and status as the world's biggest developing country also give it clout over issues such as climate change and international financial reforms.

BILATERAL DIPLOMACY
China's Foreign Ministry has canceled one scheduled meeting between senior Chinese and U.S. officials, a vice-minister level meeting on strategic security, arms control and nuclear non-proliferation.
Other bilateral talks are also likely to be curtailed or downgraded. They could include a dialogue on human rights that President Barack Obama and President Hu Jintao agreed to during their summit in November.
It is less clear whether China will show its anger by delaying, shifting or downgrading regular Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade (JCCT) talks scheduled for later in the year, or the higher-level Strategic and Economic Dialogue due to be held in Beijing around mid-year.
Washington officials were recently in Beijing to discuss preparations for those two meetings, and Chinese President Hu is expected to visit the United States later this year.

PUBLIC OPINION
Chinese media and Internet sites have sounded public anger about the proposed arms sales and the dispute will stoke anti-American sentiment.
In a 2008 poll of Chinese public views of the United States by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, 46 percent of respondents said the Taiwan issue was the biggest problem in China-U.S. relations -- by far the most popular response.
Public anger over the arms sales has already produced calls for boycotts of American companies and products. Similar protests against French, Japanese and U.S. companies in past years have erupted and then quickly petered out with little lasting effect on their sales in China.

By: Brant

Big Trouble in Real China

China's throwing a fit over US arms sales to Taiwan. Got it.

Chinese state media blasted the United States on Monday for a planned $6.4 billion arms package for Taiwan, while a U.S. official said Washington was committed to helping the island defend itself.
The arms sales, the latest in a series but the first by the Obama administration, has added to a litany of bilateral strains between the world's biggest and third-biggest economies, including the value of China's currency, trade protectionism, Internet freedoms and Tibet.
The official China Daily said U.S. weapons sales to the self-ruled island, which China claims as its own, "inevitably cast a long shadow on Sino-US relations."
"China's response, no matter how vehement, is justified. No country worthy of respect can sit idle while its national security is endangered and core interests damaged," the English-language newspaper said in an editorial.
The United States switched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 1979, recognizing "one China," and says it wants the two sides to settle their differences peacefully. The United States remains Taiwan's biggest backer and is obliged by the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act to help in the island's defense.

And the details aren't going to make the Middle Kingdom very happy.

The Obama Administration notified Congress of a $6.4 billion package of arms sales to Taiwan Friday, and Beijing howled with predictable indignation. Far from signaling an American misstep, China's threats show how important the sale is to Asia-Pacific security.
Friday's notification fulfills promises made to Taiwan under the Bush Administration. Taipei will acquire 60 Blackhawk helicopters, two Osprey antimining ships and 114 Patriot antimissile systems—all defensive weapons that do little to alter the fundamental balance of military power across the Taiwan Strait, which is heavily in China's favor.
Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou said Saturday the package helps redress that imbalance and allows Taipei to negotiate from a position of strength with China. This message comes at an important time for the democratic island, as many Taiwanese voters begin to question whether an economic pact with China may sell the island nation short.
China always protests U.S. sales to Taiwan, but the sanctions are a new development and part of China's increasingly willingness to use economic bullying to promote its political goals. This was on display in 2008, when China canceled an economic summit with the European Union to protest French President Nicholas Sarkozy's planned meeting with the Dalai Lama. Although most U.S. weapons manufacturers do little business with China because of restrictions on arms sales to the regime, companies like Boeing could be affected in their nonmilitary dealings with China.
The U.S. is obligated to defend Taiwan under the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act, and in any case it should keep doing so until Beijing dhows it is willing to be a more responsible stakeholder in the Asia-Pacific. China has pumped resources into its military (with double-digit growth in defense budgets every year) with next to no transparency about its defense goals.
The Chinese army has shot a satellite out of the sky with little concern for the debris that could threaten international space research, and its navy has picked fights with U.S. surveillance ships in the South China Sea. China's neighbors are also concerned over Beijing's behavior in disputes over control of the Paracel and Spratly islands in the South China Sea, and disagreements with Japan about resources in the East China Sea.
China has more than 1,000 Chinese missiles aimed at Taiwan, and a study of Taiwan's air force capabilities is underway to help Washington determine how best to upgrade them. A logical way to do so would be to sell Taiwan the F-16s it has been requesting for years, adding to the 150 F-16s the U.S. sold Taiwan in 1992.

Now, is all this just a smoke-screen for an economic dispute?

The People’s Republic had a particularly nasty reaction to the US plan to sell $6.4 billion in arms to Taiwan. China threatened to suspended military cooperation with America and sanction the US manufactures who made the arms which will be sent to Taiwan.
The dispute is part of a growing friction between the world’s No.1 and No.2 economies, depending on whether China has moved ahead of Japan in annual GDP. The recent problems with cyberattacks on Google and the search company’s threat to stop censoring results in China is on top of a number of arguments over tariffs that grew late last year.
The core of the differences between China and the US are much more basic than arms and search engines.
China’s purchasing manufacturing index hit 57.4 in January up from 56.1. Factory activity in China moved higher for the 10th consecutive month. That almost certainly means that China’s first quarter GDP will be above 10%. That has caused concerns about inflation as national banks have flooded the market with liquidity and the costs of raw materials have risen with factory output.
One the other side of the Pacific, the Congressional Budget Office has forecast GDP growth well below 3% for the next government fiscal. Pessimistic economists such as Nouriel Rubini put the expansion number as low as 1.5% for the second half of 2010. The recovery in the US could collapse completely under the weight of unemployment and lack of credit for small businesses.
China is pushing the West as hard as it reasonably can on issues of trade and its right to be a nearly unchallenged military power in Asia. The People’s Republic knows that its economic health is better than nations in North America and Europe. Favorable policies to get exports into those regions will rely on China’s willingness to close its markets to Western goods and services forcing a sort of trade quid pro quo. In the meantime, China can cut many of its military ties to the US as retaliation for weapons sales to Taiwan. The American military sees cooperation with the Chinese as a strategic necessity to support harmony between the two large armies that could reach points of friction without regularly contact and negotiations.

Starting to sound a lot like the 1930s, but with China in the raw materials quest instead of Japan. And China owning a lot more of the US economy.

By: Brant

China takes its military and goes home to pout

China is throwing a hissy-fit over US arms sales to Taiwan.

China suspended military exchanges with the United States and threatened sanctions against American defense companies Saturday, just hours after Washington announced $6.4 billion in planned arms sales to Taiwan.
The development has further strained the complex relations between the two powers, which are increasingly linked by security and economic issues.
China's Defense Ministry said the sales to self-governing Taiwan, which the mainland claims as its own, cause "severe harm" to overall U.S.-China cooperation, the state-run Xinhua News Agency reported. The Foreign Ministry threatened sanctions against U.S. companies involved in the arms sales.

By: Brant

Welcome to the Jungle Part 2

Ah, the refreshing sound of oppressive regimes attempting to lecture the US on foreign policy. It sounds like...the Cold War all over again. At least then the world was rather more black and white. Such polarity does one thing: it crystalizes the senses and clarifies the mind. There's nothing like pulling out a crayon and writing "Ima Badguy" on your nameplate to help a new President get a feel for how the world works.

During the Presidential election Barak Obama was pounded on from all sides about how inexperienced he is and how he many challenges he will face. Fortunately, those challengers thus far have done him the courtesy of making it abundantly clear they have no intention of keeping the best interests of the United States in their objectives.

So we are led to today's episode of Welcome to the Jungle. And who has done us the courtesy of telling us how to behave? None other than those rascally Chinese. And how shall we appease them, they instruct us? No sales of arms to Taiwan.

Huh. With enemies like these at least President-Elect Obama won't have much trouble figuring out who the bad guys are.

By: GladiusMagnus

Building the Ring Around China

As noted earlier, the State Department wanted to increase containment of China.

Selling weapons to Taiwan is certainly one way to do it.

The U.S. government on Friday announced plans to sell around $6.5 billion in arms to Taiwan, including 30 Boeing Co Apache attack helicopters and 330 Patriot missiles, in a move that could anger China.
The Pentagon's Defense Security Cooperation Agency told lawmakers that the sale -- which also includes 32 Harpoon submarine-launched missiles -- would support Taiwan's continuing efforts to modernize its military.

By: Brant