COA Development For Non-Kinetic Ops

Tangentially related to the current ongoing stability ops discussions, Small Wars Journal has an excellent article about Wargaming Courses of Action During Other-Than-Major Combat Operations

An excerpt from them:

Another idea.

One student group developed their own wargaming matrix that captured their analysis in Figure 10 below. Their particular matrix was laid out horizontally using five columns. The “critical event” was the first entry. The five columns are laid out accordingly left to right:

“IF” represents the “action” (the critical event to be wargamed) normally initiated by another group (militia, civilians, etc…).

“AND” represents what should be the expected protocol for that case, but for some reason has failed, thereby forcing a decision upon the command.

“THEN” represents the friendly reaction (or decision). This is where the command begins to integrate the various warfighting functions.

“SO WHAT?” represents the results of this process (the actual analysis). This includes the likely counteractions of the key leaders / populations, along with instructions to subordinate units as well as determining possible preemptive measures.

So how can the training tools of the ongoing CGSC Stability Ops discussion be re-purposed to support MDMP wargaming on similar operations?

By: Brant

CGSC Invades PaxSims, then spreads like a virus

The sims team at CGSC put out a non-requirement requirements document about “stability operations” sims, over at PaxSims.

For those of you who aren’t used to the jargon of the military and the military simulation community some of the material attached below will be unfamiliar. Don’t worry about that, however—the core question here is really one of “what do simulation users need to learn about stability operations, and how might a simulation best teach them that?” Folks who work in the humanitarian and development communities, or who work on the politics and economics of fragile and conflict-affected states, may have especially valuable “outside” perspectives to offer.

The topic is now spreading across the web like a virus.
I've had 4 emails on it.
Doctrine Man is talking about it on Facebook.
It's over at Wargaming Connection.
It's appeared on both the Simulating War and MilGames mailing lists.

It'll be interesting to see where this all goes.

EDIT: Training & Simulation Journal now gets involved, too

By: Brant

Syria's Already Ignoring Cease-Fire

Look, if Kofi Annan - the guy who presided over 2 failed UN missions to the Congo - says you're out of line and that levels of violence in your country are still unacceptable, maybe you should pay some attention. I mean, the guy clearly knows what he's talking about, eh?

The UN special envoy, Kofi Annan, has told the Security Council that Syria is still witnessing unacceptable levels of violence, despite a ceasefire being in place since 12 April.

Briefing diplomats in a closed-door session, Mr Annan said he was alarmed about surges in violence in Syrian cities after visits by UN monitors.

One activist group said 38 people were killed on Tuesday, mostly in Homs.

The UN wants to increase its observers in Syria from a handful to 300.

Mr Annan said the overall situation was "entirely contrary to the will of the international community".

He said he was "particularly alarmed" by reports of government forces firing on protesters in Hama.

"If confirmed, this is totally unacceptable and reprehensible," he said.

He also called for the rapid deployment of the observer mission.

By: Brant

Where Do The Brits Go From Here?

There's a lot of angst about the future of the British army, which the Economist sums up in a recent article.

His review starts from the premise that whatever the tactical successes of the British army in Iraq and Afghanistan, those campaigns have not worked out well overall. It also makes a number of other assumptions. The first is that the next few years will be dominated by “getting off the Afghan hamster wheel”—extracting men and equipment from Afghanistan in good order and deciding which bits of kit to keep and which to leave behind. The second is that by 2020, after troops have come home from Germany, the army will be almost entirely based in Britain for the first time in generations. The third is that the army must move to a “contingency” posture rather than a campaigning one, putting the onus on adaptability.

It looks as if one of the ideas in the SDSR—that there should be five essentially identical multi-role brigades—will be quietly junked in favour of “tailoring the force for the challenge” around two light and two heavy brigades which will draw on other resources as needed. Although a good deal of the army’s heavy armour and artillery will be mothballed or scrapped, investment in tactical-level networking—a key lesson from Afghanistan—will be given priority. Where deep cuts are made, the emphasis will be on preserving institutional readiness by retaining just enough skills, expertise and equipment to regenerate capabilities quickly.

General Carter’s review is also putting a lot of emphasis on “upstream” conflict prevention and capacity-building. The army already carries out training missions in bits of the Middle East and Africa, but the idea is to go much further, with around 3,000 of its people actively engaged around the world. As well as making future wars less likely, Sir Peter hopes that this will attract bright and culturally sensitive people to an army career. And if the army is called upon to fight in far-flung places, the hope is that it will know more about them than it did when it pitched up in Basra or Helmand.

By: Brant

GameTalk - Nation-Building

Yesterday's "Sound Off" brings up the follow-on question:

How do you build this into a game?

In any examination of current military events, there's a need to understand the civilian governance component of the conflict. How does this aspect influence the design and implementation of current-events wargames?

What games do it well?
What games try, and fail, to do it?
What games aren't doing it but should?

By: Brant

Prioritize D-I-M-E

Diplomatic
Information
Military
Economic

Clearly, if you take the "M" out of DIME you get "DIE", but does that make the "M" most important?

Prioritize DIME. Why put them in the order you did? Under what circumstances might your priorities change?

By: Brant

UN Authorizes Additional Troops For Somalia

An alliance between Al-Shabab and Hizbul Islam has prompted the UN to increase the number of peacekeepers deployed to Somalia.

Moving to better protect Somalia's weak, U.N.-backed government from armed opposition groups, the Security Council unanimously agreed Wednesday to increase the peacekeeping force there by 50 percent, from 8,000 to 12,000 troops.

Council members also authorized the African Union to extend its deployment of the peacekeeping force known as AMISOM through Sept. 30, 2011, calling the move "vital for the long-term stability of Somalia."

Uganda said it would contribute the additional 4,000 troops.

The resolution approved by council members said the extended deployment and the troop increase are necessary to support Somalia's so-called Transitional Federal Government and civilians from attacks by al-Shabab and other opposition groups.

Al-Shabab and the other largest armed group in the country, Hizbul Islam, announced in recent days they would drop their feud and merge forces to concentrate on fighting the Mogadishu-based government and the African Union troops who protect it.

By: Shelldrake

Hard Times For UN Peacekeepers In Ivory Coast

UN troops deployed to Ivory Coast are standing firm in the face of threats to "starve them out".

Forces loyal to incumbent President Laurent Gbagbo of Ivory Coast were trying to "starve" U.N. peacekeepers into "submission" by blocking their supplies at border crossings, as the West African nation slid into a "real risk of a return to civil war," U.N. chief Ban Ki-moon said Tuesday.

In an address to the U.N. General Assembly, Mr. Ban said the lack of supplies "will put our peacekeepers in a critical situation in coming days." On Monday, the Security Council defied Mr. Gbagbo's order to expel all 9,000 U.N. troops by extending their deployment a further six months.

Mr. Ban called on the international community to ensure the U.N. troops are supplied. "Any attempt to starve the United Nations mission into submission will not be tolerated," he said.

The U.S., U.N., European Union and African Union have all backed Mr. Gbagbo's challenger, Alassane Ouattara, as the winner of the Nov. 28 presidential election, but Mr. Gbagbo refuses to step down.

By: Shelldrake

COA Analysis: Sudanese Civil War (Reader Participation Required!)

So if the proxy war in the Sudan goes hot, and the media gets ahold of it, what happens? Is Sudan too close to Somalia for interventionist comfort? Discuss!

By: Brant

Al-Shabab Spies Threaten Somalia

In a recent interview, al-Shabab spy Mohamed Mahamed reveals details of the shadow war conducted in Somalia by a spy network working for Islamic militants.

During the day, Mohamed Mahmoud counts the African Union peacekeepers in his neighborhood and notes their locations. At night, he gives the information to his handlers in the radical al-Shabab militia, undermining the U.S.-backed government the peacekeepers support.

"We are everywhere," he said.

In the deadly contest for the capital, spies like Mahmoud work in the shadows of this failed state's civil war. The militants they assist have weakened the government and limited its ability to protect the population, tactics used by insurgents in Baghdad, Karachi and Kabul.

"We're fighting one war in the open, and another war below the surface," said Abdiraheem Addo, a military commander and close associate of Somalia's President Sheikh Sharif Ahmed.

Conversations with spies and former spies in Mogadishu provide a rare look into how al-Shabab, designated a terrorist organization by the United States, operates in government-controlled areas. Its increasing role here helps explain how the government and 6,000 peacekeepers, supported by hundreds of millions of dollars from Washington and its allies, have been unable to quell a ragtag guerrilla force with little public support.

By: Shelldrake

Updates from Somalia

If you're still interested in weighing in on our first COA Analysis, about Somalia, here's some more info you can take into account...

al-Shabab militiamen are bearing down on Mogaidishu, as the US looks to try and reinforce the AU Peacekeeping unit with funding.

A top United Nations official, Lynn Pascoe, the U.N. under-secretary-general for political affairs, says he is "hopeful" for Somalia, where the government is trying to fight off an offensive by Islamist militants. This comes as Uganda is offering to send more troops to the beleaguered nation if the United States provides funding.

The militant group al-Shabab in late August launched an offensive aimed at toppling Somalia's Transitional Federal Government and the African Union Peacekeeping Mission in Somalia know as AMISOM. Mogadishu has come under heavy shelling. More than 100 people are dead.

Uganda says it will send more troops if the United States provides more funding. The State Department has responded by saying it will continue to provide equipment, training and logistical support, and encourages other donors to step forward with additional help.

Man - increased Islamist activity? US funding the AU peacekeepers/makers for a showdown with them? Sounds a lot like COA 3!


Meanwhile, local media in Uganda is reporting that more troops are on the way.

Uganda has deployed an additional 750 peacekeepers in volatile Somalia out of the 2,000 troops, a figure that was agreed to by African Union (AU) to boost the 6,100 strong peacekeeping force in Somalia, a Ugandan army commander said on Wednesday.

Lt. Gen. Katumba Wamala, Commander of Land Forces of the Uganda People’s Defense Force, told reporters here, 40km south of the capital Kampala, that 750 troops were already deployed and another 250 will be deployed soon.

He said the deployment was in fulfillment of the country’s pledge following a decision by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) in July this year.

Burundi has also promised to deploy another contingent next month raising the required number of 2,000 troops, he said.

This will bring the total number of troops to 8,000 that were originally required in 2007 by the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM).

By: Brant

COA Analysis: Somalia (Reader Participation Required!)

Starting our new series on Course of Action Analysis, we examine possible courses of action in Somalia. There's a raging Islamic insurgency that's modeling themselves after the Taliban, an AU peacekeeping force that's marginally competent and under-supported, a lack of cajones on the part of the Americans to relive Blackhawk Down, and an international piracy problem. Just your average minor conflict...



So what sayeth the readers? Pick a course of action and tell us how you see things playing out...


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By: Brant

Indian Peacekeepers Killed In Congo

Sadly, 3 more names have been added to the list of more than 100 soldiers who have been killed while serving in the UN Congo peacekeeping mission.

Dozens of rebels attacked a U.N. peacekeeping base under darkness in eastern Congo early Wednesday, killing three Indian soldiers and wounding seven other peacekeepers, an Indian army official said.

Indian army spokesman Virendra Singh said up to 50 rebels attacked a base in Kirumba in North Kivu province around 2 a.m., leading to an exchange of gunfire.

Nearly 4,000 Indian army soldiers are part of the U.N. Congo peacekeeping mission, which has about 20,000 people from various countries.

Jado Ikosi, a human rights activist who lives near the Kirumba peacekeeping base, told The Associated Press that gangs entered the base after killing the guard with a spear.

Ikosi said locals heard gunshots from 1:30 a.m. to 2 a.m., but the attackers had fled the scene by the time people awoke in the morning. The attackers left behind shoes that fell off when they were fleeing and signs of blood on the fences surrounding the base, he said.

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and the U.N. Security Council condemned the attack and called on Congo's government to launch an immediate investigation and ensure that the perpetrators are "swiftly" brought to justice.

By: Shelldrake

BUB: US Around the Globe

Today's BUB covers a couple of stories about the US around the world. Slow posting from Brant today: all-day conference with no connectivity expected.

The US is sending more helicopters to assist Pakistan with their flood relief issues. FWIW - I haven't seen a huge relief surge from Iran. Good thing the US wants all Muslims exterminated, eh?

The United States is more than tripling the number of helicopters it is providing to help in flood-ravaged Pakistan, Defense Secretary Robert Gates said Wednesday.

Gates said the USS Peleliu is now off the coast near Karachi, carrying 19 helicopters and a complement of about 1,000 Marines.

The six U.S. helicopters which were sent to Pakistan from Afghanistan earlier have been helping rescue people and deliver aid supplies. Gates said the Peleliu's complement will replace six combat helicopters on loan from the U.S. war effort in Afghanistan.

Gates said President Barack Obama has directed his administration to "lean forward" in offering help to the Pakistanis, which he stressed will be at a pace dictated by Pakistan's needs and its ability to handle aid.

+++


GEN Mattis has been sworn in as CENTCOM commander.

Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates on Wednesday swore in a new top commander to oversee military operations in the Middle East, Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Marine Gen. James N. Mattis took over as head of U.S. Central Command, replacing Gen. David A. Petraeus, who last month became the top commander in Afghanistan.

Technically, Mattis, who has commanded forces in both Afghanistan and Iraq, will now become Petraeus’s boss. In reality, most Defense officials in Washington expect Petraeus’s voice will be most influential in setting Afghanistan policy, while Mattis focuses on Pakistan, Iran and other parts of the region.

+++

US PACOM is changing their stance on China's power-projection buildup.

In Congressional testimony earlier this year, new Pacific Command chief Admiral Robert Willard noted China's "unabated" military buildup and concluded that it appeared "designed to challenge our freedom of action in the [Asia-Pacific]." Admiral Mike Mullen, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said last month that he's "moved from being curious" about what China is doing, "to being concerned about what they're doing." And new Pacific Fleet Commander Patrick Walsh said that China is putting the South China Sea's vital trade routes "at risk" over its various territorial claims.

Many U.S. officers and senior civilian employees at Pacific Command with whom I spoke last week agree with this view. Now they want their bosses in Honolulu and Washington to back up their talk with action so that the U.S. doesn't "give up any water space" to China. They cite, in particular, China's territorial claims over the South China Sea; its illegal seizure of Philippine and Vietnamese islands; and its skirmishes with fishing boats off the coast of Indonesia and Vietnam.

The recent tough rhetoric should at least serve to comfort America's Pacific allies, many of whom are worried about China's rise and America's commitment to the region. Japan has complained to Beijing about its navy poking around Japanese islands. Australia's defense ministry has voiced concern about the end of America's "unipolar moment" in the Pacific, and what that means for their nation's defense. Taiwan continues to demand that China remove the thousands of missiles Beijing points at the democratic island.

By: Brant

Rwanda is Rotating Soldiers Thru Darfur

As a part of the peacekeeping mission there, Rwanda is rotating infantry battalions through Darfur.

RWANDA Defence Forces (RDF) yesterday began a rotation exercise of its soldiers serving under the UN-AU hybrid mission in Sudan, after a one-year tour of duty.

The rotation process began yesterday with over 200 soldiers returning after one year of service in the troubled Sudanese region while a similar number was sent to replace them.

For the first time, the troops were airlifted from the northern African country by the national carrier RwandaAir.

The returning troops were received at Kigali International Airport by Brig. Gen Jean Bosco Kazura, who commended them for the good service and positively representing the country on the peacekeeping mission.

"The country is proud of you. The role you have played along with your colleagues to ensure that peace returns to Sudan makes our country proud," Kazura told the soldiers.

He told them that while it is time to rest after the long service in Sudan, it will be only for a short while before they resume serving the country.

"You might be aware that we are heading into elections, so there will be no much time to rest. It is service as usual. We expect you to ensure that peace prevails during this period," Kazura told the rejoicing soldier.

According to the Army Spokesperson Lt. Col Jill Rutaremara, 100 soldiers from the 45th Battalion, were airlifted in the wee hours of the morning by RwandAir to replace the ones who returned from the 49th in the area known as Zalinge in Darfur commanded by Lt. Col. Callixte Kanimba,.

By: Brant

AU Planning to Beef Up Somalia Force

In addition to a potential mission change, the AU is planning to send reinforcements to Somalia.

African Union leaders have agreed to reinforce the AU peacekeeping force in Somalia to tackle al-Shabab militants.

At a summit in Uganda, they approved a request to send 2,000 more troops to the Somali capital Mogadishu.

Rules of engagement are to be changed to allow the troops to fire first if they are facing imminent attack.

Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni had wanted a tougher mandate to "eliminate" the al-Qaeda linked group that allowed forces to go on the offensive.

By: Brant

Prepping for the "Big One" in Somalia? Again?

AU military chiefs are meeting / discussing how to throw the Islamists out of Somalia. Yes, again.

A key Somalia strategy meeting is underway in the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa, with military chiefs from across Africa expected to hammer out a plan of action to confront the crisis in the war-torn country.

It was announced yesterday on the sidelines of the ongoing AU Summit in Kampala that the African Union and regional Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) expect their military representatives to assess the resources that will be required to rid Somalia of the terrorist-affiliated al Shabaab militants.

By: Brant

UN Force in "Kurdistan"

GEN Odierno is advocating UN Peacekeepers in northern Iraq.

The top U.S. military commander in Iraq says United Nations peacekeepers may be needed to protect disputed areas in the northern part of the country after U.S. troops leave in 2011.

In an interview with the Associated Press, General Ray Odierno says a U.N. peacekeeping force might be an option if tensions between Kurds in northern Iraq and the country's Arab population have not eased by the time of the U.S. pullout at the end of next year. However, Odierno said he hopes a U.N. presence will not be needed there.

Iraq's Kurdistan region has been involved in a feud with Baghdad over the oil-rich Kirkuk region. Former dictator Saddam Hussein expelled thousands of Kurds from Kirkuk and relocated Arab families to the area.

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By: Brant

Canadians Headed to Congo?

Who knows, but Lt-Gen Leslie might be the man for the job...

The soon-to-be-departing commander of the Canadian army isn't about to retire, but Lt.-Gen. Andrew Leslie wouldn't say Wednesday whether his next assignment will involve a peacekeeping mission in Congo.

Leslie, speaking publicly for the first time since word of his forthcoming departure sparked speculation about his future, said it's up the chief of defence staff and the defence minister to tell him what's next.

"No soldier gets to pick his or her next job," Leslie said in an interview with The Canadian Press following a nearly four-day visit to Kandahar.

"When they're ready, they'll let me know."

Leslie also wouldn't bite on questions about just how seriously Ottawa is contemplating a UN request for a peacekeeping force in the African nation, which has been torn asunder by violence since 1996.

"The government of Canada is the sole authority and will decide where their armed forces will be used," he said after a tour of front-line Canadian bases, his last as head of the army.

A massive shuffle of the senior ranks two weeks ago left Leslie, who was considered a leading candidate for the country's top military job of defence chief, without a command.

By: Brant

Serbian Apology for Srebrenica

The Serbs has officially apologized for the Srebrenica massacre.

Serbia's parliament has passed a landmark resolution apologising for the 1995 Srebrenica massacre - Europe's worst atrocity since World War II.
The motion, approved by a narrow majority, says Serbia should have done more to prevent the tragedy.
It stopped short of calling the Bosnian war killings a genocide.
The murder of nearly 8,000 Bosniaks (Bosnian Muslims) was carried out by Bosnian Serb forces - allies of then-Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic.
The massacre, in what was supposed to have been a UN safe haven, became a symbol for the atrocities of the Balkan wars.

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By: Brant