Ukraine: 3/2 morning update

The BBC reports on the latest in the mobilization in Ukraine.

Ukraine has ordered a full military mobilisation in response to Russia's build-up of its forces in Crimea.

Prime Minster Arseniy Yatsenyuk said the country was "on the brink of disaster".

US President Barack Obama has called Russian troop deployments a "violation of Ukrainian sovereignty".

Nato is conducting emergency talks on the crisis. Its secretary-general has said Russia's actions "threatened peace and security in Europe".

Several other measures were announced on Sunday by national security officials:

The armed forces would be put on "full combat readiness".

• Reserves to be mobilised and trained
• Ukraine's foreign minister will seek the help of US and UK leaders in guaranteeing its security
• Emergency headquarters to be set up
• Increased security at key sites, including nuclear plants.
• Airspace closed to all non-civilian aircraft.

The BBC has seen what appear to be Russian troops digging trenches on the Crimean border.

Submarine To Join Ukraine's Navy

Would you want to serve on a submarine that has been under repair for almost 20 years? Sailors in the Ukrainian Navy will get the chance when a former USSR submarine enters service in 2011.

Ukraine’s only submarine ‘Zaporizhzhia’ which has been undergoing repairs for almost ten years is expected to enter service in 2011, according to the Defence Ministry.

RADM Yury Ilyin, Ukrainian Navy Deputy Commander was quoted as saying that Zaporizhzhia will start mooring trials in December and sea trials in May 2011 after which it will join Ukraine's naval forces.

The submarine was launched in Leningrad in 1970. Until 1990 it had been with the USSR Navy. Ukraine received the submarine during the division of the Black Sea Fleet after the USSR collapse. It has been repaired since 1991, media reports said.

By: Shelldrake

KC-X Tanker Contract's New Twist

Apparently there's a Ukrainian bid coming as a partnership with a US company.

U.S. Aerospace, Inc. and Antonov executives inked a pact on July 1 spelling out the terms of a partnership under which the American company will act as the prime contractor of a team that will enter up to three Antonov aircraft into the high-stakes KC-X race, an industry source said.

Boeing is expected to enter a 767-based aircraft, and its arch-rival Airbus plans to pitch a tanker based on its A330. The U.S.-Ukrainian partnership likely will send ripple waves across the global defense sector. All bids are due July 9.

The source said U.S. Aerospace and Antonov plan to enter the four-engine AN-124-100, and a two-engine variant of that airframe known as the AN-122.

By: Brant

Ukrainian Food Fight Over Russian Naval Base (literally!)

Following Putin's statement that they have no desire for overseas bases, and the Belarus statement that the Russians ought to pay for the ones they already have, comes word that the Ukrainian parliament disintegrated into a food fight in protest over the extension of the lease of the Russian naval base on the Black Sea. Y'know - one of those bases that Putin says the Russians don't want. Unless they do.

Opposition lawmakers hurled eggs and smoke bombs inside Ukraine's parliament Tuesday as the chamber approved an agreement allowing the Russian Navy to extend its stay in a Ukrainian port until 2042.

Thousands of opposition demonstrators rallied outside the parliament building as deputies from newly elected President Viktor Yanukovich's coalition approved a 25-year extension to the Russian Black Sea Fleet's base in Crimea.

The chamber of the parliament filled with smoke as smoke bombs were released and Speaker Volodymyr Litvyn took shelter under his umbrella as eggs rained down on him.

Russian Black Sea Fleet at Wikipedia

Is this the fleet?


View Larger Map

By: Brant

Belarus Leader (Unintentionally) Makes Putin Look Stupid

Remember last week, when Putin said the Russians don't want any bases outside their borders? Do you think he meant to say any more bases? 'Cuz it sure sounds to us like he's got bases in Belarus and the Ukraine, two places that (last time we checked) are no longer inside Russia. Unless Putin meant "outside the borders we once claimed while pretending to be a world power and keep Eastern Europe under out heel."

Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko on Sunday berated ally Russia for not paying for its military bases deployed in his country and warned that he could snub the summit of a Moscow-dominated security pact next month.

Lukashenko, who has sought to improve ties with the West, bitterly hit out at Russia's gas-for-base deal with Ukraine.

"I want to congratulate my Ukrainian colleagues on this victory -- they have saved a few billion dollars by signing this deal," Lukashenko told reporters.

Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich, bargaining with Moscow for cheaper gas, agreed last week to extend the lease of Russia's Black Sea Fleet in the Crimea by 25 years beyond 2017, a move the opposition sees as Ukraine selling its sovereignty.

"If someone has forgotten it, Russia has two military bases on Belarussian land," Lukashenko said. "And Russia pays us zero roubles, zero kopecks and zero dollars for these bases."

"Besides Belarus, Russia has no one on its western flank."

He said one of the bases was part of Russia's national ballistic missile early warning system, while the other provided communications with Russian submarines in the Atlantic.

Russian officials say Moscow does not pay Minsk for the bases because Belarus gets Russian oil and gas at low prices, while Belarus says the lack of payment is due to a close military and political partnership between the two.

By: Brant

Ukraine's Seams Fraying

Hey, the Ukraine is coming apart in a disputed election.

A Ukrainian court has suspended the result of the recent presidential election, following a challenge by losing candidate Yulia Tymoshenko.
Mrs Tymoshenko, the Prime Minister, went to the supreme administrative court in person on Tuesday claiming the result was rigged.
The court says the result should be suspended while it considers the evidence she has submitted.
It also says the inauguration of winner Viktor Yanukovych should be delayed.
Ukraine's parliament had agreed on Tuesday that Mr Yanukovych should be inaugurated on 25 February.
The new court ruling concerns the Ukrainian Central Electoral Commission's declaration on Sunday that Mr Yanukovych had won the vote.
The results showed him to have beaten Mrs Tymoshenko by a margin of 3.48%.
Mrs Tymoshenko has so far rejected Mr Yanukovych's appeals for her to accept defeat.
She has claimed that the election was marred by "systemic, fundamental and general falsifications".
But international election monitors have said there were no significant flaws in the vote.

Who could've seen that coming?!

Ah well... maybe there won't be a factual basis for what started as a hypothetical game after all.

Ukraine's embattled premier Yulia Tymoshenko says she has withdrawn her legal challenge to the results of the country's presidential election.
Tymoshenko said Saturday she "sees no sense" in continuing her appeal since Ukraine's Administrative Court has refused to consider the documents she claims show the falsification of some election results.
Tymoshenko lost the Feb. 7 presidential runoff to pro-Russian opposition leader Viktor Yanukovych by just 3.5 percentage points. She has refused to concede and has urged a full re-count.

By: Brant

Is the Ukraine Fraying?

Looks like the election in the Ukraine is still being disputed by at least one party.

Ukraine's embattled Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko appeared in public for the first time in days Thursday but still ignored calls to concede defeat in the presidential election and resign her post.
Tymoshenko, looking tense but determined, appeared before the media for the first time since Sunday's election to chair a government meeting. She did not comment on the elections directly but took a swipe at the pro-Russian opposition leader Viktor Yanukovych, who defeated her by a margin of 3.5 percentage points, according to the final preliminary vote count.
Her refusal to admit defeat signals that Tymoshenko is digging in for a long power struggle with Yanukovych. Analysts say her strategy now appears aimed at undermining Yanukovych's attempts to consolidate power and enact legislation.
"It is already obvious today that nobody from Yanukovych's team has any intention of raising social standards," Tymoshenko told the government meeting. "Already, after the election, we are starting to discover huge pre-election deceptions and people should factor that into their future political calculations."

Think this might make a good wargame?
You can discuss it and track the progress of the design/development at ConSimWorld.

By: Brant

Chinese finally doing something with their aircraft carrier?

Gahlrahn posted some updates about the nascent Chinese aircraft carrier Varyag.


View Larger Map

Additionally, the Chinese are cutting a deal to train their naval pilots in the Ukraine.

And the eventuality of Chinese naval power projection seems inevitable, even if it's not always well-orchestrated.

Varyag at Wikipedia.
Varyag at FAS.org
All things Varyag at its own website.

By: Brant

BREAKING: Somali Pirates Cut Deal For Ukrainian Arms Ship

The Ukrainians have apparently paid off the pirates for their arms tanker, according to CNN:

Pirates have reached a deal with the owners of a Ukrainian ship loaded with arms that was seized more than two months ago, an official with the Kenya Seafarers Association said Sunday.
'A deal has been reached to free the MV Faina. Talks on how to deliver the ransom money are ongoing,' Andrew Mwangura of the association told CNN.
It is not clear how long those talks will take, but the ship could be freed as soon as an agreement has been reached.
The ship, which is laden with Soviet-era tanks, tank artillery shells, grenade launchers and small arms, was seized on September 25.
It was heading for Kenya, whose government had bought the weapons from Ukraine, Ukrainian Defense Minister Yuri Yekhanurov said, according to the Interfax-Ukraine news agency.

By: Brant

Ukraine leaning NATO's way? Brant's game-based predictions on target?

So the Ukrainians (and Georgians) may be leaning NATO's way, but will NATO return the favor?:

When the presidents and prime ministers of every NATO nation met in Bucharest, Romania, in April, they agreed unanimously that Ukraine and Georgia, two former Soviet republics, would someday, without a doubt, enter the Western alliance.
But in the face of Russian resistance and even some recalcitrance within the alliance, the leaders could not agree to formally invite either Ukraine or Georgia to the ritual of requirements, reforms and deadlines. It was the diplomatic equivalent of proposing marriage without setting the wedding day. And it was a notable rejection of American policy, which had long sought to begin the formalities of the engagement, known in NATO parlance as a Membership Action Plan.
Instead, an ad hoc coalition of longtime NATO members — Germany, France, Italy and Spain — continued to block the desires of Washington and the newer members of Central and Eastern Europe to bring the two countries into the fold.

It's also always fun to point out people who dare question the august majesty that is my prescience!

Of course, given that the French (1808-1813) and Germans (1941-1944) both got their asses kicked up and down the vast expanses of the Ukraine, it's probably no wonder they aren't in a rush to sign up for it's defense from the Red Horde.

By: Brant

Ukraine Volunteers for EU Force; Putin Spit Take Sprays Coffee on Newspaper

So apparently the Ukrainians are volunteering to join an EU battle group, despite not belonging to the EU, and knowing that it'll probably tweak the Ruskies (which may be a bonus):

Ukraine has formally broached the possibility of joining an EU battle group, a suggestion that would, if approved, make Ukraine only the third non-EU country – after Norway and Turkey – to be incorporated into the military system, European Voice reported.
The topic was raised at a meeting on 29 October between the commander-in-chief of Ukraine`s armed forces, Serhiy Kyrychenko, and the chairman of the EU Military Committee (EUMC), General Henri Bentégeat.
The current concept of the EU`s battle groups is relatively new, and the EU`s 15 battle groups reached full operational capacity only in January 2007. Battle groups rotate actively, so that two are ready for deployment at all times.
Ukraine has already held consultations with Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic and Slovakia, which are considering forming a battle group. There were also been consultations with the commanders of the armed forces of Greece regarding a Ukrainian contribution of the EU battle group Helbrok, in which military units from Bulgaria, Cyprus, Romania and Slovenia also participate. Helbrok was on deployment during the second half of 2007 and might be deployed again in the first half of 2009.

Boy, I can't imagine the Russians enjoying this one at all.

By: Brant

Albania, Croatia to US: "We Gatchya Back, Yo"

In a move guarateed to leave the Russians quaking in their boots, President Bush endorsed Albania and Croatia as members-in-waiting of NATO, thus ensuring that should the US, or UK, or heck Latvia, ever be attacked, Albania will come rushing to their aid with, well, with something resembling and armed force:

President Bush kicked off the weekend by signing agreements endorsing Albania and Croatia as NATO members and called on other Balkan and former Soviet countries to join the alliance."
...
The president called their entry into NATO "an historic step for the Balkans," noting that within a decade the region has “transformed itself from a land consumed by war to a contributor to international peace and stability."
...
Bush reiterated U.S. support for others to join NATO, including Georgia, Ukraine, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Montenegro, and Serbia if it chooses. These countries “remember the pain of tyranny,” and, as a result, “treasure the blessings of liberty,” he said.

First reaction... "yawn."
Second reaction... "uh, sure it's a 'contributor to international peace and stability' - that's why we have 10000 peacekeepers still stationed all over the Balkans"
Third reaction... What the $&%^#?! Didn't we just almost go to war over this?! Whey the #&*@% are we trying to admit Georgian and The Ukraine now of all times? Must be King George trying to make life harder for the Obama-in-waiting on his way out the door.

By: Brant

US to Baltics: "We Gatchya Back, Yo"

After NATO discussed revising their plans to defend the Baltic members of NATO, some of the NATO partners disagreed with the idea, including, remarkably, the French (who have no part of the NATO military command structure). However, on his recent tour of Europe and the Middle East, Adm Mullen, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs reiterated the commitment to collective NATO defense, specifically the Baltic nations:

The United States has assured the three Baltic countries bordering Russia that they can rely on NATO protection in case of a military attack.
U.S. Admiral Michael Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, spoke Wednesday during a visit to the Lithuanian capital, Vilnius.
He said he understands concerns about Russian military policy toward the Baltic states and Ukraine after Russia's military incursion into Georgia in August. But he said NATO's commitments and obligations to defend its members are clear.

By: Brant

Russia Threatens the Ukraine. War(game) Imminent?

Vlad the Invader may be picking out his next target. Following the rather clumsy and brutal attempt to bring Georgia back into the fold, Putin has ramped up the rhetoric targeting the Ukraine:

Prime Minister Vladimir Putin of Russia on Thursday accused Ukraine of having sent weapons and military personnel to assist Georgia during its war with Russia.
The accusation came as Russia announced a memorandum of understanding for handling natural gas sales to Ukraine after Putin met with the Ukrainian prime minister, Yulia Tymoshenko.
The timing of the Russian prime minister's statements underscores a drive in Moscow to increase its leverage in Ukraine, a former Soviet republic.
Without referring to the Ukrainian president by name, Putin suggested that President Viktor Yushchenko had authorized weapons supplies to Georgia before and during Russia's war there in August. He also said that Ukrainian military personnel had fought on Georgia's side during the conflict.
'When people and military systems are used to kill Russian soldiers, it's a crime,' Putin told reporters after meeting with Tymoshenko at his residence outside Moscow.

Boy, sure would be nice if someone would get around to publishing their game on this topic, eh*?

By: Widow 6-7


* for those not in-the-know, GrogNews editor Brant is the head wargame designer at BayonetGames.

This can't be good news on the Horn of Africa

According to BBC NEWS:

Pirates off the coast of Somalia have seized a Ukrainian ship carrying T-72 tanks, an official has said.
Ukraine's foreign ministry said the ship had a crew of 21 and was sailing under a Belize flag to the Kenyan port of Mombasa.

Now, while this can't be good news out there on the Horn of Africa, simply owning the hardware isn't nearly the same as using it. Beyond the obvious ammunition issues, there are significant maintenance problems with older Soviet-era tanks. The autoloaders on those tanks are complicated to repair if you know what you're doing. Does anyone really think a handful of Somali pirates are going to be able to keep 'em working? And if not, what good it a tank with no ammunition? At that point you have a heavily-armored battering ram.

By: Brant