Did Russians Push for Kyrgyzstan "revolt"?

Was the US airbase the trigger needed to push the Russians over the edge?

The payback for the Kremlin’s financial aid package was that Kyrgyzstan would put an end to the Pentagon’s lease of the Manas air base. Arguing that the United States’ mission in Afghanistan had outlasted its original objectives and that strikes by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization had caused an unacceptable rise in civilian casualties, Bakiyev gave the Pentagon six-months notice to quit the base. This happened at a time when NATO’s resupply from Pakistan through the Khyber Pass had been repeatedly interrupted as a result of ambushes carried out by the resurgent Taliban.

Intense lobbying by the Obama administration led Bakiyev to reverse his decision in June 2009 after having received financial aid from Moscow. As a consequence, he extended the Manas lease for one year – but only after having imposed strict conditions to make this possible: Annual rent on the base rose from $17.5 million to $60 million. The facility, previously named the Pentagon’s Manas Air Base, was renamed “Transit Center at Manas International Airport,” with security at the facility handled by the government of Kyrgyzstan. In early July the rubber-stamp Kyrgyz Parliament endorsed Bakiyev’s decision.

The agreement set the scene to allow lucrative Pentagon contracts for the provision of aviation fuel and other services, which benefited Maxim Bakiyev and other relatives of the president.

Moreover, the Kyrgyz president extracted a promise from President Barack Obama’s White House that it would not comment on the July 23 presidential election. Accordingly, the US State Department kept quiet at a time when observers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe criticized what it described as ballot stuffing, intimidation and media bias that won Bakiyev 80 percent of the vote.

Interestingly, the two most popular state-run Russian-language television channels available in Bishkek marked the Tulip Revolution’s fifth anniversary on March 24 by highlighting examples of Bakiyev’s misrule. The anniversary was accompanied by rising popular discontent over a steep hike in electricity rates imposed in January by the recently privatized power-generating companies. These had been sold to Maxim Bakiyev and his cronies at rock bottom prices. A swiftly cobbled coalition of opposition groups called for national protest action on April 7. The event quickly mushroomed into demonstrations that led to calls for regime change.

The fall of Bakiyev has reopened debate over the American military base. A senior Russian official recently revealed that Bakiyev had failed to keep his promise about the withdrawal of the American base and, that in Kyrgyzstan there should be only one base, namely a Russian base. However, since the interim leader of the forces that overthrew Bakiyev, Roza Otunbayeva has mentioned a six-month timeframe on changing the Constitution and for holding fresh elections, any decision on the future of the Manas air base must wait.

By: Brant