02 August 2011

Connections 2011, Day 2, Afternoon Panel

my comments in red

1520 - 1640 Anticipating the Future Through Wargaming Panel, Co-chairs: Christopher Weuve & Dave Ross
Speakers: Dr. Bob Barker, Using Wargames to See Over-the-Horizon; Christopher Weuve, The Naval War College and the New; Maritime Strategy: An Idiosyncratic View; R. A. “Rocky” Rochford, CAPT, USN, WG Global Engagement

Bob Barker talking up some background of wargaming, starting w/ board games from the classic era. CRTs as a set of non-deterministic probabilities affected by skewing factors (terrain, weather, etc).

Games are a way to learn and explore what-ifs fro both modern / futuristic warfare.
Important considerations of commercial strategy games - accurate / cheap / fun.
Retention / education improves if the players enjoy playing the games.

Barker draws a distinction between 'education' using strategy games and 'training' using arcade-style first-person shooters.
---- Not sure I agree with that paradigm, but it works in his context

STTRs through AFSOR / AFRL:
- High-powered microwave weaponry game (HPM / DEW)
- improved AI for gaming
- COIN wargaming
- future uses of UAVs

HPM/DEW modeling based on a mod of Point of Attack II in which HPM/DEW wpns were put in play as an option in the ORBATs available.
Tiller's Modern Air Power adopted by Air University; uses name of "Theater Air Visualization"
Current UCAV STTR scenario won by Tiller for ph II
- Ph I wargames have demonstrated that Chinese UCAVs could swarm/dominate Taiwan Straits
- DEW UCAVs could revolutionize SEAD

more after the jump

Switch to Chris Weuve, who doesn't want us talking about what he does for a living, but trust us, it's cool.

Discussion of naval strategy based on the wargame he observed at the Naval War College.
Slides going to come fast and furious... but will link them later.

Game was called Strategic Foundations Game to feed into N3/5 for writing new strategy. Looked out 15-20 years; played 6 events over 2 months.
---- Weuve says this was a very quick schedule, with a bunch of just-in-time-game-design happening... Kinda like what we did at Origins.

Brought in blue players for workshop, and got some ideas from them.
Brought in red players for workshop, and got some ideas from them.
Combined them in the white cell to result in a few game turns.

Two-move game:
1A - red move, looking out 5/10/15 years for objectives, strategies, actions
----- defined 6 different potential red entities
1B - blue move, define blue strategy, based on 4 different grand strategies.
Adjudication by white/green (SMEs / Naval War College)
2 - ExCon finally has a "scenario" with red & blue responding to it
(quick digression about allies / other players)

Asked for the range fan of world events / geopolitical situation
per admiral: "Influenze epidemic yes, asteroid strike no."

Five Red strategic entities: China, Pakistan, Iran/Shia movements, Salafists, Norks (Russia was #7; will ask who was #6)
Four blue grand strategies to compare with: Primacy, Selective Engagement, Cooperative Sccurity, Offshore Balancing (provided strategic context)

Some blue issues dominated conversations, such as spt for Israel, nukes/non-proliferation.

Going back to big navy: 5 different maritime strategy options and parts of 4 of them were incorporated.

Computer support based on capturing the statements of the SMEs, but did not use any decision-support modeling.

CAPT R. A. “Rocky” Rochford talking about a game he put together for NWC.
Global Engagement - not a wargame, but set of tools facilitate wargames.
Based on his description, it sounds a lot like a PBEM, scheduled at about 1 move/month

Phase I - Strat, Strat/Operational, Operational (combined red/white cell as "control group")
Phase II - Tactical

Level 1 - Flag officer, SES, Congressional, but administrator-assisted
Level 2 - O7/O6; Level 3 - 7 each descending in echelon... all of them "self serve"

Look for the posted slides later with the "nuts & bolts" slide about who's participating

I'm just going to post the links to his slides...
---- Essentially this is an archived PBEM for non-mathematically-adjudicated games with a spiffy UI on the front end and call it a "wargame" toolkit that you just don't bother to 'roll dice' for.

By: Brant

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